Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced AUKUS military pact following concerns about China's growing military presence in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Photo: AFP / Ettore Chiefreguini
A geopolitics analyst says New Zealand joining AUKUS would further intensify geopolitical tensions, which the Pacific region does not need.
The security pact is an alliance between Australia, the UK and the US, and pillar one of the agreement includes supplying Australia with nuclear-powered submarines.
New Zealand has been investigating joining the non-nuclear AUKUS pillar two.
Geoffrey Miller told Pacific Waves that Aotearoa joining could complicate its relationship with Pacific states.
"I take the view that escalation begets more escalation," he said.
"I would prefer to have a strategy that's focused more on de-escalation, diplomacy, dialogue.
"I think this is where a state like New Zealand, as a small state, can fit in best, and it's where many Pacific states probably fit more comfortably. In the end, small states don't have huge capabilities."
Pacific leaders have previously expressed concerns over the deal going against the spirit of the Rarotonga Treaty.
In April 2023, then-Pacific Islands Forum chairman and Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown said he was "reassured to receive from US counterparts last week assurances that AUKUS would uphold the Rarotonga Treaty".
But Miller said the debate around the pact is slightly premature, with New Zealand and its prime minister yet to commit to anything.
"Christopher Luxon's approach is very much to play the time andsay that New Zealand is still exploring, considering, looking at all of these things."
However, he said the matter does not come down to Luxon.
"In the end, it's all out of Luxon's hands because we have a new [US] president in town, Donald Trump, and he does take a very different view of the world to his predecessor Joe Biden."
Meanwhile, the Green Party is urging Luxon to rule out joining AUKUS, following the heated meeting between US President Trump and his Ukraine counterpart.
Geoffrey Miller Photo: Supplied
Green Party's foreign affairs spokesperson Teanau Tuiono said Trump's hyper-aggressive foreign policy makes the case to stay out of AUKUS altogether.
An AUKUS forum has been held in Aotearoa telling circuit-board manufacturers, heavy engineering firms, and aerospace companies about the opportunities of taking part.
The 15-page briefing, dated 31 October 2024, and released by the Defence Ministry last month, showed New Zealand still in a hovering pattern over joining AUKUS pillar two.
"Areas of possible collaboration" are entirely blanked out in the document, as is most of the rest of the briefing.
During Foreign Minister Winston Peters' trip to the Pacific last April, regional leaders reiterated their stance on keeping the Pacific nuclear-free.
Australia has been hailing how the AUKUS pact has lowered barriers for it with the US and UK, allowing millions more in military exports.
