French PM’s confidence challenge further complicates New Caledonia’s political negotiations

The independence flag at the FLNKS press conference in Noumea. Photo: AFP / Delphine Mayeur

French Prime Minister François Bayrou's surprise announcement on Monday that he will call for a parliament confidence vote in his government is set to further complicate protracted talks in New Caledonia on the French territory's political future.

The announcement comes as French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls has extended his stay in New Caledonia, where he has supervised a "drafting committee" to translate a "Bougival Accord" signed in July to set the path for major political reforms for New Caledonia.

In a surprise and "risky" announcement on Monday, Bayrou said a confidence vote in his government would take place on 8 September.

He said this was in direct relation to his budget, which contains planned sweeping cuts (around €44 billion) to tackle the "danger" of France's further plunging into a situation of "over-indebtment".

"Yes it's risky, but it's even riskier not to do anything," he told a press conference.

According to article 49.1 of the French Constitution, if a majority of parties votes in defiance, then Bayou and his minority government automatically fall.

Reacting to the announcement, parties ranging from far right, far left to The Greens have already indicated they would express defiance towards Bayrou and his cabinet.

Far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party chief Jordan Bardella said Bayrou, by calling for the vote, had effectively announced "the end of his government".

Radical left France Unbowed (La France Insoumise) also said the vote would mark the end of the government.

This will place the Socialist MPs, whose votes could make the difference, in a crucial position.

Socialist party spokesman MP Arthur Delaporte, deplored Bayrou was "deaf to the demands of the French" and appeared to remain "quite stubborn".

"I don't see how we could vote the confidence," Delaporte told reporters.

To further compound the situation in France, a national strike dubbed "block everything" has been called on 12 September, with the active support and backing from the far left parties and a number of trade unions.

Valls is still in New Caledonia, after he extended his stay twice and is now set to fly back to Paris on Tuesday evening (local time).

The extension is an attempt to resume talks with the pro-independence FLNKS movement, which has attended none of the three sessions (Thursday 21, Saturday 23 and Monday 25 August) of the "drafting committee" resulting from the Bougival document signing.

Participants at New Caledonia’s drafting committee launched at the French High Commission. Photo: Haut-commissariat de la République en Nouvelle-Calédonie

Talks within the committee were reported to be not only legal (with the help of a team of French high officials, including constitutionalists, but also highly political.

Valls announced a last-ditch session on Tuesday with FLNKS before he flies back to Paris.

All of the other parties, both pro-independence and pro-France, took part in the committee sessions, which is now believed to have produced a Constitutional reform Bill that was to be tabled at both France's Parliament chambers (the National Assembly and the Senate) and later before a special meeting of both houses (a "Congress").

The Constitutional Bill would cover a large spectrum of issues, including the creation, for the first time in France, of a "State of New Caledonia", as well as a dual France/New Caledonia citizenship.

Two other documents, an organic law and a fundamental law (a de facto constitution) are also being prepared for New Caledonia.

The Bougival deal signed on 12 July near Paris was initially agreed to by all of New Caledonia's political parties represented at the local Parliament, the Congress.

But it was later denounced and rejected "in block" by one of the major components of the pro-independence movement, the FLNKS.

Valls has consistently stressed that his door "remains open" to the FLNKS.

Several local parties across the political chessboard (including the Wallisian-based Eveil Océanien and moderate pro-France Calédonie Ensemble) have already expressed doubts as to whether the implementation of the Bougival deal could carry any value if they had taken place without the FLNKS.

In the face of urgent initial plans to have New Caledonia's texts urgently tabled before French Parliament, Bayrou's confidence challenge is highly likely to further complicate New Caledonia's political negotiations.

The plan was to have the freshly-produced text scrutinised by the French State Council, then approved by the French Cabinet on 17 September.

Before the end of 2025, it would then be tabled before the French National Assembly, then the Senate, then the French special Congress sitting.

And before 28 February 2026, the same text would finally be put to the vote by way of a referendum for the people of New Caledonia.

Pro-France leader and former French cabinet member Sonia Backès however told local media she remained confident and that even if the Bayrou government fell on 8 September, "there would still be a continuity".

"But if this was to be followed by a dissolution of Parliament (and snap elections), then, very clearly, this would impact the whole (New Caledonian) process", she said.