20 Jun 2025

The Matariki Asteroid Forecast

From 8 til Late, 9:15 pm on 20 June 2025

NASA recently upped the probability of the asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the moon early next decade. The building-sized space rock’s trajectory suggests it has a four per cent chance of hitting the lunar surface in December 2032.Planetary Defence Lead at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, Katie Kuamoto, spoke to Troy Matich.

This handout picture provided by NASA on January 31, 2025 shows asteroid 2024 YR4 as observed by the Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope at the New Mexico Institute of Technology on January 27, 2025. A colossal explosion in the sky, unleashing energy thousands of times greater than the Hiroshima bomb. A blinding flash that momentarily outshines the Sun. A shockwave powerful enough to flatten everything for miles. There's a small but real chance this apocalyptic scenario could unfold in eight years -- if a newly detected asteroid, nearly the size of a football field, collides with Earth. While there's no immediate cause for alarm, scientists are watching closely. (Photo by Handout / NASA/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope/New Mexico Institute of Technology/Ryan / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / NASA/MAGDALENA RIDGE 2.4M TELESCOPE/NEW MEXICO INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY/RYAN" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS

This picture provided by NASA shows asteroid 2024 YR4 as observed by the Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope at the New Mexico Institute of Technology on 27 January 2025. Photo: Handout / NASA / Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope / New Mexico Institute of Technology / Ryan / AFP

The Matariki Asteroid Forecast

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