Dead rats and discord: What next in the Peters-Seymour stoush?

Analysis: New Zealand politics has long acknowledged a truth of coalition life - sooner or later, everyone swallows a dead rat. Less examined is the art of spitting one back up.

This term has already delivered its fair share of deceased squeakers. National had to stomach the Treaty principles debate. ACT swallowed some corporate subsidies. And now NZ First has gagged its way through the Regulatory Standards Bill.

Expired vermin are a built-in feature of MMP, as every party makes compromises for the greater governing good.

In 2018, the Green Party found itself voting for the waka-jumping bill despite years of opposition because of an agreement secured by NZ First during coalition negotiations with Labour.

(Ironically, the Greens later used the law to eject one of their own, but that is beside the current point.)

As the 2020 election grew closer, then-co-leader James Shaw sensed an opportunity. He pledged a new intention to repeal the law and then teamed up with National in an unsuccessful attempt to do just that. NZ First leader Winston Peters was furious, labelling the Greens "unstable and untrustworthy".

In response, Shaw said his party had kept its word by voting for the legislation, but had never promised not to later revoke it if the opportunity arose.

Asked whether he was playing political games, Shaw grinned: "I learn from the master."

Five years on, the master is performing his own version of rodent regurgitation.

Peters initiated the disgorgement on Thursday, suddenly announcing NZ First would campaign next year on repealing the Regulatory Standards Act - the very law the party had voted for just a week earlier.

The position was not entirely a surprise. NZ First had not been quiet about its disquiet over ACT's flagship bill, believing it to be anti-democratic.

And the bill's critics were aware of the dynamic too. Greenpeace last week issued a statement headlined: "Winston Peters and NZ First hand victory to ACT over corporate Bill of Rights."

Still, the speed of the turnaround was stunning.

Just days earlier, NZ First's Casey Costello had stood in the chamber to deliver the party's votes, declaring "no hesitation" in supporting the bill.

With hindsight, she should've perhaps demonstrated a hint of hesitation.

"No hay problema," Peters told reporters on Thursday. "We'll fix it."

But ACT's leader David Seymour certainly regarded it as quite the problema. Speaking to media shortly after the news broke, Seymour fired back, reviving memories of the old acrimony between the two.

It was not quite the venom of name-calling past - not crook, nor cuckold - but it does not get much more serious than an allegation of coalition disloyalty, or at least future disloyalty.

"It sounds like he's getting ready to go with Labour again," Seymour said. "He seems to be lining up for a different kind of coalition."

The sharp rebuke should be seen in light of recent polling. In recent months, NZ First has surged past ACT in popularity, each trending in opposite directions.

Both parties are hunting a similar pool of voters: those frustrated with the status quo but not prepared to entertain the left.

It does Seymour no harm to remind those voters that Peters has gone with Labour before, and could do so again. Just the seed of doubt could be enough to win some over to the ACT camp.

The prospect is not entirely outlandish either.

Yes, Peters has said he will not work with Labour under its leader Chris Hipkins. Asked about the prospect on Thursday, Peters chuckled: "Don't make me laugh."

Likewise, Hipkins has said such an arrangement would be "very unlikely".

But the polls are tight, and if voters deliver a hung Parliament on election night, be sure all sorts of conversations will be happening between all sorts of parties.

Reinforced narrative

For National, the coalition contretemps are a more serious problema. They reinforce the narrative that Prime Minister Christopher Luxon lacks firm control over his warring offsiders.

As well, it undercuts National's arguments that a Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori arrangement would be chaotic, when its own side is hardly serene.

Visiting New Plymouth on Thursday, Luxon waved away RNZ's questions about the infighting, suggesting it was simply normal pre-election positioning. The coalition was "absolutely not" falling apart, he said.

But the increasing feuding does put National in an awkward spot.

On Thursday, campaign chair Chris Bishop refused to say whether National would or would not repeal the Regulatory Standards Act in future, a bizarre spectacle given it had just voted it into law.

"Peters has set out his stall," Bishop said. "We will set out our stall in due course."

This is not what National wants to be talking about right now. Like the rest of us, its MPs saw the latest IPSOS survey.

They need to be talking about the economy, the cost of living and health if they are to win back the public's trust. Coalition squabbles only muddy the message.

None of it bodes well for an easy final year of governing. Both Peters and Seymour need to take care. They can exchange a few blows here and there, but neither can afford to burn the relationship.

All signs are that all three coalition parties will need each other again if they are to hold on to power next year.

And no dead rat is as hard to swallow as a return to the opposition benches.

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