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Some community pharmacies could be forced to close up in the wake of a potential $42 million loss in revenue from extended prescription periods, the industry group warns.
The change, which was announced in May's Budget was expected to come in to place early next year.
It's hoped the move, which will extend prescription lengths from three months to twelve, will reduce pressure on general practitioners and lower the cost to patients.
But the Pharmacy Guild said the move is a threat to the sector, with many community pharmacies already struggling to survive.
Chief executive Andrew Gaudin told Morning Report the industry was not aware of the government's Regulatory Impact Statement (RIS), which was prepared in November 2024, until last month.
It showed Health NZ modelling estimated the change would cost community pharmacies between $14 and $42 million.
Concerns about the possible impact led the guild to request further information under the Official Information Act, but it was not until the RIS was uploaded to the Ministry of Regulation's website in mid-September that they became aware of the possible implications, Gaudin said.
"We were given indications by Health NZ as part of our contract negotiations that there would be some impacts, but the reality is we didn't know the full extent of the policy intention or impacts.
"We were quite shocked to learn of that because its not financially viable for pharmacies to provide this service, and the flow on consequence of that is some pharmacies - if this isn't fixed - may be forced to reduce access either after hours or weekends, or indeed may be forced to close."
The RIS also found pharmacists would face increased workloads clinically assessing patients and managing risk for those with chronic conditions because patients will not be seeing their GP as frequently, which pharmacists had warned the ministry would be challenging given already stretched resourcing.
There was a possibility of increased demand for pharmacy services due to the lower cost to patients, which could ameloriate some of the revenue losses, but the RIS concluded pharmacies would "receive significantly less funding for the work they will be doing."
The Pharmacy Guild said a loss on that scale would turn Health NZ's three percent offer currently on the table in the National Annual Agreement Review (NAAR - the annual process to hash out the agreement between Health NZ and community pharmacists) - into a half a percent drop in funding.
Gaudin said before discovering the RIS, pharmacists assumed the loss in revenue was an unintended consequence of the new policy, but it was now clear HealthNZ was aware of the potential impact.
He said this should have been put to teams negotiating the NAAR.
The RIS found patients could save up to $105 a year on GP visits, but also faced the possibility of higher costs if health providers increased charges to cover the change.
The RIS also warned of the cost to upgrade IT systems for prescription, payment and dispensing.
It said Health NZ had flagged the "significant changes to existing IT systems" it was already trying to roll out risked being delayed if the prescription changes went through.
General practitioners would see reduced revenue while Pharmac estimated it would face an increase of $30 to $60m due to higher demand for funded medicines, according to the RIS.
The Royal College of General Practitioners warned the government against the extension ahead of the Budget, saying while it agreed the prescription period could be shortened, twelve months was too long.
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