Mt Taranaki has up to a 50 percent chance of erupting in the next 50 years, according to volcanologists. Photo: David Hancock
If Taranaki Maunga were to erupt more than 5000 farms could be left isolated for months, according to new research from the University of Canterbury.
Study co-author Dr Heather Craig said up to 40 percent of rural roads and 45 percent of bridges around the mountain could be affected.
The researchers modelled how the rural region was linked through its farms, marae, towns and the local airport to see how disruptive a future eruption could be to keeping the community connected.
"We've been doing a whole body of work called He Mounga Puia, a big five-year project to look at Taranaki volcanic future," Craig said.
"So looking across not only the volcano itself, but in the processes that may lead to an eruption in the future, but also thinking about the impacts across different sectors and how it might change the long-term kind of economic and social future of the Taranaki region.
"And so one of the things that we were really interested in is the agricultural sector, and we realised pretty early on that one of the main issues that might happen if there was to be an eruption would be disruption to the road transport networks.
"Particularly the bridges are very vulnerable to the impacts of lahars, and that would lead to farms and rural communities potentially becoming isolated for quite long periods."
Craig said research from volcanologists found there was a 30 to 50 percent chance of Taranaki Maunga erupting in the next 50 years.
She said agriculture tended to be found around volcanoes due to the quality of the soil. However, this led to many agricultural communities being highly exposed to volcanic impacts - including road network disruption and isolation.
"Isolation of people from their cultural centres and hubs can reduce the resilience of a community during eruptions. This is particularly important in Aotearoa, where marae are recognised as a critical part of disaster response and recovery."
