Photo: 123RF
Wairarapa's population growth has almost ground to a halt, in line with a nationwide trend.
New Zealand's population growth has been on a downward trend from 2.3% in 2023, to 1.7% in 2024, to 0.7% in the year to June 2025, according to numbers released in October by Statistics NZ.
The numbers follow a strong drop off in international migration, with net migrant numbers falling from 108,400 in 2023, 70,400 in 2024, then 13,700 in 2025.
Masterton saw the 11th highest growth rate, in line with the national average at 0.7%.
This was equal highest for the Wellington region with Lower Hutt. South Wairarapa's population grew by just 0.1%, while Carterton's population shrank by -0.2%.
Infometrics principal economist Nick Brunsdon said the figures were not surprising.
"Many people are currently deciding New Zealand is not where they want to be. There are not as many people coming in, and more are leaving."
The slowdown in international migration is the key driver behind the numbers, he said.
The population slowdown came off peak net growth of 108,000 in 2023, higher than pre-Covid levels.
"In terms of percentage population growth, 2023 was the fastest since the 1950s, at 2.3%. Part of the growth in numbers was a post-Covid surge with the borders opening."
He said the percentages translated to Masterton having a net gain of about 200 people, Carterton a net loss of about 100, and South Wairarapa a net gain of about 100.
This represented a loss of approximately ten people offshore, and a gain of about 170.
Net migration is the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants over a specific period.
Carterton Mayor Steve Cretney said the district's regulatory and building department had seen a decline in building consents and consents for subdivisions, in line with national trends.
He thought recent government announcements reducing earthquake prone building requirements and cutting red tape for granny flats should support increase in confidence and growth.
"Our new council is certainly looking at how we might be able to support and work with local business owners, so the town centre is more attractive to new businesses and residents alike," he said.
"It is a great time to focus on building a strong resilient local economy, that supports our existing community, while ensuring we create the right conditions to attract sustainable growth in the future."
Brunsdon said the reduced growth numbers had significant impacts on the economy.
"Having less population growth, there is less pressure on the housing market," he said.
"It's a key factor in the housing market being so flat right now.
"Not having as much growth in the population means there is not as much growth across all aspects of the economy. It helps the economy when there are more people."
He said the trend was visible across New Zealand.
"Because population growth nationally has slowed down, it has slowed down everywhere."
A report to Masterton district council's meeting on Wednesday shared Infometrics analysis of the numbers.
"This pattern played out with remarkable uniformity, with every territorial authority facing the same or slower growth in 2025, compared to 2024," the report said.
"Every single territorial authority faced a lower rate of growth in 2025 than 2024 - no one bucked the trend."
Underpinning the national growth of 0.7%, New Zealand's districts' numbers ranged from growth of 2.4% to a decline of 0.4%.
"Most areas grew to some degree, but 18 areas saw their population decline in 2025, and four saw no change," the report said.
Brunsdon said New Zealand's demographics were changing.
"If we look ahead we see an ageing population. We are going to need more migrants over the next five to ten years to carry on doing what we are doing."
LDR is local body journalism co-funded by RNZ and NZ On Air.
