Flickering fortunes: National's energy plan unlikely to light up polls

1:22 pm today
Finance Minister Nicola Willlis and Energy Minister Simon Watts.

Finance Minister Nicola Willlis and Energy Minister Simon Watts. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Analysis - As Nicola Willis unveiled the government's electricity plan, she quipped that the lights in the room had dimmed.

The finance minister framed it as a neat metaphor for New Zealand's energy future if not for the changes being announced.

A less generous reading might see it as a symbol of her party's flickering political fortunes as a result of them.

Certainly, little in Wednesday's hotly anticipated package looks likely to give National a lift in the deadlocked polls.

The headline changes are: a proposal to help with importing gas (but with no detail as to how much or when), a commitment to stump up for electricity projects (but with no detail as to how much or when), and a plea to the sector for any other ideas (which surely could've been issued many months ago).

In preview interviews, Energy Minister Simon Watts foreshadowed "fundamental reform" and "significant but surgical" changes.

He continues to claim the package "in its entirety" fits that billing, but the response from critics suggests otherwise.

And these are not your traditional opponents of the National Party either.

Simon Bridges

Former National leader Simon Bridges. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver

The country's largest business association, the EMA, has called it "underwhelming". The Auckland Business Forum, chaired by former National leader Simon Bridges, dubbed it a "missed opportunity".

John Harbord, of the Major Electricity Users' Group, put it starkly on Nine to Noon: "There is nothing in this that's going to make a difference to affordability in the next decade."

That is where the major political risks lies for National.

Polling shows the cost of living remains voters' number one concern - and the power bill is part of that pain. Electricity prices have jumped almost nine percent in the past year.

Watts argued the changes would put "downward pressure" on prices, but New Zealanders would not see any relief in short-term.

To be fair, National was always in a bind, wedged between its two coalition partners, pulling in different directions. ACT favours full privatisation, while NZ First has floated nationalisation.

At Wednesday's media conference, Watts said the former would not fix the underlying problem and the latter was "bumper sticker politics".

National was not helped either by the fact the 270-page Frontier report landed alongside two scathing peer reviews with quite a different assessment.

The gentailers - Genesis, Mercury, Meridian and Contact - contend that they had already solved the problem while the review was underway, agreeing to stockpile 600,000 tonnes of coal at Huntly.

As such, Watts seems to have judged that a more conservative collection of tweaks will do the trick. Perhaps he's right, but he has an uphill battle to convince households and businesses of that.

Bridge

NZ First's Shane Jones. Photo: RNZ / Mark Papalii

It's notable that NZ First's Shane Jones - an associate energy minister - was missing from Wednesday's announcement and his name nowhere to be found on the media release.

Jones has been the loudest voice in government demanding a shake-up, railing against the gentailers - which, by the way, all saw their share prices jump in the announcement's aftermath.

Clearly, he lost the argument around the Cabinet table. But the setback may well prove useful in election year, giving NZ First space to draw a sharp contrast with its partners on a hot-button issue.

As of midday Wednesday, Jones had yet to speak publicly, but just last month, he promised a "Trumpian" campaign on the energy sector if nothing of substance was done.

He is bound, of course, by Cabinet's collective responsibility - but he has stretched those limits before.

And if next year delivers another energy crunch, you can rest assured Jones will be there saying: 'I told you so'.

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