The left and right blocs would both need Winston Peters to form a government, the latest political poll suggests. Photo: RNZ / Tim Collins
New Zealand First remains the kingmaker in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll, with both the left and the right blocs needing Winston Peters to form a government.
The National Party is up 0.9 points on last month to 35.9 percent and The Labour Party has increased by 1.4 points, taking it to 27.9 percent.
The ACT Party has dropped by 5.2 points to 9.1 percent while the Greens are down 2.1 points to 10.6 percent.
National and ACT would have 58 seats together, three shy of the 61-seat goal. That is down six seats from last month.
Labour remains on 35 seats, the Greens are down four to 13 and Te Pāti Māori is up one to five seats - giving the left bloc only 53 seats - down three.
Neither bloc would be able to form a government alone, but both could in coalition with NZ First - polling at 6.9 percent giving them nine seats.
But NZ First and Labour have both ruled out working with together, leaving the left bloc with no path to power.
In the preferred prime minister stakes - both National leader Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins have risen.
- Christopher Luxon is up four points to 29 percent.
- Chris Hipkins has gained two points to 27 percent.
- Chloë Swarbrick is up 1.4 points to 6.1 percent.
- Jacinda Ardern is down 2.5 points, on 4.5 percent.
- Winston Peters is down 0.2 points to 4.3 percent.
- David Seymour is down four points to 4 percent.
- Nicola Willis remains unchanged at 2.5 percent.
- James Shaw has dropped 0.9 points to 1.2 percent.
- Marama Davidson has gained 0.9 points to 1.2 percent
- Matt King has dropped 0.6 points to 0.7 percent.
- Chris Bishop has dropped 0.2 points to 0.1 percent.
The Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 1 October to Wednesday 4 October 2023. The median response was collected on Tuesday 3 October 2023.
The sample size was 1000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel, selected at random. 909 respondents were decided on the party vote.
The maximum sampling error (for a result of 50 percent) is +/- 3.1 percent, at the 95 percent confidence level.
