1 Aug 2025

Scientists urge coalition not to weaken methane target

2:23 pm on 1 August 2025
Simon Watts

The group has written to Climate Change Minister Simon Watts setting out the legal and trade consequences of a lower methane target. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Climate scientists have urged the Climate Change Minister to not weaken the country's methane target, after a landmark ruling out of the United Nations' highest court.

Last week, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) found countries can be held responsible for paying reparations for damage caused by their greenhouse gases.

At the time, Lawyers for Climate Action said the ruling put further pressure on the government's climate plans, including any changes to the biogenic methane target.

The group has now written to Simon Watts, cc'ing the prime minister, foreign affairs minister and trade minister, setting out the legal and trade consequences of a lower target.

In the letter, they say reducing the target would breach New Zealand's obligations under the Paris Agreement, as well as its free trade agreements with the United Kingdom and the European Union.

They maintain it's "highly arguable" local agricultural exporters would have an unfair advantage over European producers if New Zealand lowered its methane target, putting around $635 million of export revenue at risk.

They also say a lower target would see New Zealand join the likes of Russia and the United States in being one of the few countries to weaken its emissions reduction targets since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2016.

"Any such decision could have significant reputational, trade, and economic consequences for New Zealand, as our major trading partners continue to push forward on their Paris Agreement commitments," the letter says.

Asked if the government planned on reducing the methane target, Watts said Cabinet hadn't made any decisions and he'd have more to say about it "soon".

"Our methane target must be scientifically based and practical, ensuring we don't shut down kiwi farms," he said.

Lawyers for Climate Action chief executive Jessica Palairet said the EU had the ability to take trade sanctions against New Zealand if it thought it had breached its climate commitments.

"That's why this matters so much and the reason we wrote last week is because for the first time, we had authoritative guidance from the world's top court on what it might mean for a party to effectively implement Paris, what it might mean to take an action that materially affects the object and purpose of Paris.

"We're concerned that a weakening of New Zealand's methane targets would do just that and expose New Zealand to the risk of trade sanctions."

Palairet said an earlier letter, in which 26 international climate change scientists accused the government of "ignoring scientific evidence", showed the strength of concern felt in her community.

"It underscores the level of international concern and concern from the scientific community and how worrying this decision is. This isn't a decision that's being made on the basis of science.

"It's a decision that's being made on the basis of politics to try and weaken New Zealand's ambition on methane in the face of international independent scientists advising the government not to do this."

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Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick Photo: RNZ / Mark Papalii

The Green Party has been critical of the National-ACT coalition agreement to review what a methane target based on a "no additional warming" principle would look like.

Co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said the fact the government would not rule out weakening the country's methane target after this review was "deeply concerning".

"We said at the time that they were setting up a smoke screen for downgrading climate ambition and unfortunately given the minister's lack of ability to rule things out it is pretty clear that they are intending to downgrade our climate ambitions.

"If they were to downgrade our biological gasses target that would mean either that they are downgrading ambition as a whole or that they are expecting all of the rest of the economy and households to pick up the slack."

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