By Jonathan Milne, for Newsroom
Among the mayors to lose their chains are Dunedin's Jules Radich, Napier's Kirsten Wise, Selwyn's Sam Broughton, Queenstown's Glyn Lewers and Central Hawke's Bay's Alex Walter. Photo: Supplied/ Newsroom composite
Residents of up to half the country's cities and districts will have new mayors this coming week, after turning against almost all those who imposed high rates rises.
Newsroom projects that in 66 mayoral races, at least 31 communities have elected new mayors, with two more in the balance.
With most special votes and those cast on the final Saturday still to be counted, it's a swing to the right, with David Seymour's ACT Party electing up to 10 candidates in its first foray into local politics.
But perhaps more than just a swing to the right, it's a reflection of the impact of rates rises on cost of living. Of 18 councils that imposed double-digit rates rises this year, 13 have elected new mayors - and a 14th, Whakatāne, hangs in the balance.
Second-placed Hamilton mayoral candidate Sarah Thomson, who sat on a council that hiked rates more than 41 percent over three years, perhaps says it most bluntly: "To be completely frank, it's been a really shitty time with rates increases, and the cost pressures on local government, and I'm not surprised by some of the results," she tells Newsroom.
Thomson, a lawyer and climate activist, was comprehensively beaten to the Hamilton mayoralty by former National MP Tim Macindoe.
"On our council, there's been a shift to the right," she says. "Those who have come in on a lower rates platform are going to find it really challenging to make a meaningful dent in rates because of the cost of water infrastructure."
The political shift in Hamilton is one repeated around the country.
In referendums, only 17 of 42 councils voted to retain Māori wards.
Wellington mayor Tory Whanau, a Green Party candidate, opted not to seek reelection as mayor after a torrid three years that were defined by controversy and high rates rises; in the end she failed even to win election as a councillor in the city's Māori ward.
Local government NZ president Sam Broughton, regarded as left of centre, was ousted as mayor of Selwyn, along with half his councillors.
The result will force a major rethink at the peak association for local government. It was regarded by some members as too close the previous Labour government. It's been under pressure since first Timaru pulled out, then Auckland, Christchurch, Kaipara, Grey, Westland and Western Bay of Plenty, as well as West Coast Regional Council. (Timaru eventually returned).
They have expressed concerns about the cost of membership, and whether it delivers value for money. Some have also expressed political differences over matters like Māori wards and co-governance.
At this election, three of the 11 mayors on its national council retired, and now three more have been rolled by voters. Another, Vince Cocurullo of Whangārei, is hanging on by only a thread.
Central Hawke's Bay mayor Alex Walker, the chair of LGNZ's rural sector, won barely half as many votes as challenger Will Foley. And Jules Radich, LGNZ's metro sector chair, faded to third place in his failed bid to retain the Dunedin mayoralty.
Buller mayor Jamie Cleine, who's championed climate adaptation and the previous government's Three Waters reforms, was booted out along with all his councillors. He says there was a mood for change, and the "affordability pains" of rates rises were a deciding factor.
Even on the financially-straitened Chatham Islands, the incumbent Monique Croon looks to have been ousted by councillor Greg Horler.
Horler is a farmer, and with his wife Rosemary hosts guests at the Awarakau Lodge. "I first came to the island in 1977 and was a great place to be - vibrant."
But he says the economy has been steadily deteriorating, especially after the quota system effectively deprived islanders of their fisheries. "I think we've actually been sliding down the slope since then, to be honest."
He says his first challenges, if his win is confirmed, will be to unify the different groups on the islands, in an approach to central government. But he also believes the council needs to make cuts. "I'd like to think we could trim some spending back."
In Marlborough, voters have elected two ACT Local candidates, John Hyndman and Malcolm Taylor.
Announcing their candidacies, Hyndman joked that ACT must have been "really scraping the bottom of the barrel", and Taylor quoted the old adage that anyone who wants to be a politician isn't qualified to be one. "So when some mates asked me to stand - it came through an email from the ACT Party - I said I'll throw my hat in the ring. But if there's anyone younger, I'll stand aside. And there's no one younger."
On Saturday night, he ducks out of a noisy council reception for newly-elected councillors, to talk on Newsroom. "Our aim is, of course, keep rates low," he says.
"Previously voters would read the wee 150-word thing in the voting booklet, and it doesn't tell them anything. Whereas, if they know it's the ACT Party behind someone, they know what the party's values are, so they know what person's standing for."
Soon after, Hyndman, a former anaesthetist at Wairau Hospital, calls as well. He says he's perplexed as to why he was elected. "I just think people liked the idea of lower rates and trying to avoid wastage as much as possible. When you start talking to people, they're not very knowledgeable about local affairs… Most people couldn't care less and don't know much about how councils operate but they grizzle like hell about having to pay high rates."
Hyndman admits it will be difficult to rein in spending and slow rates rises; the underlying cost increases for councils are 3.3 percent to start with, he notes, and long-term depreciation of capital assets essentially doubles that.
"You can't really cut the rates below the basic 3.3 percent increase, but you could perhaps save money in other areas like the depreciation area, and deferring paying back Covid expenditure.
"But the problem is, if you don't raise rates, you've got to get the money from somewhere. You can either cut your expenditure, which is never popular, or you've got to borrow money or sell assets or whatever. It's very, very difficult."
Despite being at the other end of the political spectrum, he agrees with unsuccessful mayoral candidate Sarah Thomson in Hamilton on the challenges ahead for councils wanting to slow rates rises.
"As that lady Sarah you were talking about says, it's very, very difficult to cut rates. And I've been looking at this hard because people keep asking me the same question: how are you going to cut rates? And it's not as easy as you think, and the more you look at it, the more you read and talk to people, it's not an easy task."
Only one region, Northland, looks to have bucked the swing to the right. There, progressive Far North mayor Moko Tepania has held on comfortably. When elsewhere there were national narratives imposed on local elections, he argues Far North voters were focused on what they saw locally.
"Seeing is believing, walking the talk over narrative spin," he adds. "Our people have seen the positive, progressive work we've been doing and have voted accordingly!"
Tepania may yet have company in Whangārei and Kaipara where his political fellow travellers Ken Couper and Snow Tane are running close second places behind Vince Cocurullo and Jonathan Larsen, respectively. They could threaten on the final count.
And in Whakatane, the threat to incumbent Victor Luca is not from the right but from the left. Former Green MP Nandor Tanczos is just 19 votes behind him on first count; it's essentially too close to call.
- This story was first published by Newsroom
