Finance Minister Nicola Willis on Tuesday cast fresh doubt on whether New Zealand will pay for the offshore carbon credits it currently needs to meet its 2030 promise to halve emissions. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
Cabinet ministers need to get their story straight about whether New Zealand will buy offshore credits to meet its Paris Agreement promises, a climate lawyer says.
Lawyers for Climate Action executive director Jessica Palairet said appearing to back away from climate commitments could also have real-world trade and legal risks for the country.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis on Tuesday cast fresh doubt on whether New Zealand will pay for the offshore carbon credits it currently needs to meet its 2030 promise to halve greenhouse gas emissions.
It was not in New Zealand's best interests "to send cheques for billions of dollars offshore", she told reporters.
"That's not our priority."
Willis' comments follow similar dismissals from Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay earlier this year.
However, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts is yet to rule out meeting the target through offshore mitigation.
Watts told RNZ last month that the priority was reducing domestic emissions "but we are also exploring all available options to meet our [2030] commitment".
"We are making progress on making sure we have the structures and relationships in place to access offshore mitigation, if needed in the future," he said.
In a written response to RNZ on Tuesday, Watts said that he, the prime minister, and Willis were clear "that we have no current plans to send billions of dollars overseas".
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts is yet to rule out meeting the target through offshore mitigation. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
However, he doubled down on keeping the government's options open.
"Our efforts to continue reducing emissions domestically as a priority continue, but we are also exploring all available options to meet our [2030] commitment while recognising the challenges involved."
Watts said a coming "renewable energy boom" and "increasing confidence" in agricultural technology meant the target could be achieved domestically.
"We believe it is possible ... but acknowledge it will be challenging."
The gap to meeting the target had already come down from 149 million tonnes (Mt) to 84Mt since 2021, he said.
"2030 is 48 months away and I am optimistic about how we are tracking."
Lawyers for Climate Action executive director Jessica Palairet said the latest remarks from Willis "do go further than particularly what the minister of climate change has said".
Despite Watts' optimism, New Zealand was currently projected to overshoot its target by a full year's worth of emissions, and recent policy changes would make that worse, Palairet said.
Barring some "remarkable new technological development", there was no way the current suite of policies would achieve New Zealand's international goals.
The government therefore needed to be straight-up about what it would do instead, she said.
"The minister of climate change has appeared to be more cognitive of the risks of New Zealand falling foul of Paris than the minister of finance's comments today would suggest.
"He's pointed to cooperation agreements such as those we signed even in the last two weeks at COP as evidence that the government's ... considering all options for meeting [the target]."
Willis' comments signalled "a retreat" from that, Palairet said.
"There need to be a consistent line among senior ministers and a consistent plan for meeting our Paris Agreement obligations."
There are no punitive measures for missing the 2030 target.
But Palairet said there were "real reputational, trade, economic, and legal risks for New Zealand".
"Among other things, New Zealand has trade obligations that require us to effectively implement the Paris Agreement and expose our exporters to trade sanctions if we do not."
"We've got to come up with a plan," she said.
"Simply saying that we're exercising best efforts and best endeavours without anything to actually show for that, is not enough."
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