Oriini Kaipara won the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election on Saturday, which was triggered by the passing of Takutai Tarsh Kemp. Photo: RNZ / Lillian Hanly
Analysis: The dust has now settled on a contest neither candidate really wanted to take part in - the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election, triggered by the tragic death of Te Pāti Māori's Takutai Tarsh Kemp.
Her passing, and the weight of her legacy, defined much of the campaign. The only misstep came late in the piece, when Tākuta Ferris' ill-judged Instagram story backfired. Otherwise, the race was marked by tributes - to Kemp and to each other - from the two front-runners.
This was never a battle between candidates who frequently referred to one another as whanaunga (relatives). Many voters pointed out a win for Oriini Kaipara was not a loss for Peeni Henare, who would remain in Parliament regardless. The real choice was between two parties.
Labour's Peeni Henare, comfortable in a suit and in gumboots, armed with cabinet experience and a formidable presence on the paepae, was hoping to reclaim the seat he lost by just 44 votes in 2023. He pitched himself as both the voice of Tāmaki Makaurau and accountable to it, while also seeking to strengthen Labour's wider mandate with Māori.
Oriini Kaipara, meanwhile, while "not a seasoned career politician", and declared that being born Māori meant "you are born political". Raised by the riches of Kura Kaupapa Māori and shaped by the kaumātua of Hoani Waititi, she followed in the footsteps of Sir Pita Sharples by attaching her colours to Te Pāti Māori's flag. Her aim was to bring her background, community and voice into the realm of Parliament.
Te Pāti Māori has retained the seat. Kaipara endured what co-leader Rawiri Waititi called a "trial by fire" but emerged with Kemp's legacy intact, boosting the party's margin over Henare by about 3000 votes. It was an unmistakeable echo of support for a minority party that only months ago made international headlines for breaching parliamentary rules, resulting in the harshest punishment ever handed down - a breach Henare himself was implicated in.
This by-election came down to two very different forces: a party firmly embedded in the establishment, and a party long shaped by being shut out of it. The result is a clear signal that, in Tāmaki Makaurau at least, voters see a need for strong Te Pāti Māori representation. Māori want "unapologetic representation," co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said.
For many, this race was a test of whether Labour had done enough to win back the six of seven Māori seats it lost in 2023. It has not.
But the result was not a personal rejection of Henare, who impressed throughout the campaign - sometimes even outshining his opponent. He's already looking ahead to the next test, saying the "sun will rise tomorrow".
Instead, it reflects a broader movement that has captured a generation. Nearly half the electorate is under 40, and Te Pāti Māori has chosen to speak to that demographic directly, particularly on social media.
Social media and "on-the-ground" engagement remain the party's focus, even as it sidelined traditional outlets - declining some media requests and barring others from its election night event. It's a curious move for a former broadcaster like Kaipara, but it reflects an unresolved tension: Māori have been misrepresented in the media.
The question now is how an elected representative balances that history with the need for accountability. Kaipara may argue she is accountable to her people - her whakapapa and her electorate. While some Māori will disapprove of the approach, as Labour's Willie Jackson observed, it seems to be working, but it raises fresh questions about the role of traditional journalism.
Kaipara told Morning Report she had spent much of her campaign helping voters make sure they were enrolled.
"We had several Māori voters, lifelong active members of our democratic process, who lost their details," she said.
"We spent the majority of six weeks helping our people figure out how they could vote."
She said that was more disappointing to her than the low turnout.
"Not as much as I'm concerned about the barriers that are being thrown up by this government for our people to get out there and vote," she said.
"I mean, [the government] stacked up a by-election with a local body election and going into a general election and decided [it] wanted to change the rules."
But Kaipara said she was "thrilled with the outcome."
"[I'm] really proud of Tāmaki Makaurau who got out and voted, and the Māori Party supporters as well."
All political parties take measures to speak directly to their supporters - take David vs the Media for example, which raises its own questions about journalism's role - but David Seymour is also accessible to mainstream media, not one to turn down interviews.
Turnout in the by-election was 27.1 percent percent, far from impressive. But low turnout does not necessarily signal apathy. As political scientist Lara Greaves told RNZ, voters knew this by-election would change little: even the loser is remaining in Parliament.
Still, it offers a snapshot of what could come in 2026. If Labour cannot tap into the same energy that fuels Te Pāti Māori, it may face another bruising result.
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