Photo: RNZ / AFP
Australians go to the polls tomorrow in a tight contest. During the lead-up public sentiment has changed globally, and that could have some sway.
The major political parties in Australia will make their final appeals to voters on Friday, with the polls finally closing Saturday night.
After months of trading insults, kissing babies, shaking hands and debating policies, the leaders of the Labor and Liberal parties are about to find out who will be the country's next prime minister.
Recent polls indicate a closely contested race, with a Newspoll survey revealing that while half of the electorate believes Labor, led by incumbent Anthony Albanese, does not deserve a second term, there is also scepticism about the Peter Dutton-led coalition's readiness to govern.
Australian political correspondent and ABC Q+A host Patricia Karvelas tells The Detail that Labor is likely to get in.
"The polls are moving in one direction, so the trend is Labor's friend, and Labor is in government; they've only been in government for one term," she says.
"The public polling says Anthony Albanese is set to either retain government in minority or potentially majority.
"But the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has been saying that the private polling for the Liberal Party is more positive in some key areas.
"I'm a pretty cautious person, and I have seen the polls get things wrong before, but the trend is the incumbent's friend, and after the victory of Mark Carney in Canada, where the incumbents were apparently on the way out there and then Donald Trump changed everything, I would say the Trump bump is having an impact in Australia as well."
Three months ago, every poll in Australia had Peter Dutton ahead. He has openly praised Donald Trump in the past, and his no-nonsense style has been likened to that of the US president.
But in recent weeks, as America imposed tariffs on Australia, that "Trump bump" has seen Dutton, a former police officer, slide into second place.
"Dutton has been in politics for a long time and has held very hardline portfolios, so he is seen as a bit of a hard man in politics ... and that's been used against him, sometimes.
"He's tried to lean into it - 'I'm strong, you can trust me in uncertain times' - but the shadow of Trump looms and he's been painted in Trump light.
"Now, he contests that, so does his party, they say there are lots of things he's different on ... but that perception in voters' minds is definitely baked in. And that's giving an advantage to Labor."
Albanese, on the other hand, has been described as a weak, soft leader by Dutton - "the weakest prime minister since Federation".
These types of personal insults have flown on both sides throughout the campaign, says Karvelas.
"It's been pretty nasty; there has definitely been a negative element to the campaign."
The dominant issue of the campaign, she says, has been "cost of living, cost of living, cost of living, cost of living, it really is".
But Labor is not necessarily being punished for failing to solve the crisis over the last three years.
"Voters, while cranky about their cost of living, are giving Labor a bit of credit for at least giving them a bit of help and perhaps having a better cost of living plan for the next couple of years.
"And so, the contest has very much been about dueling goodies for who can get you through the cost-of-living crisis."
Health and housing have also dominated, along with building nuclear power plants to deal with the energy crisis.
Voting for the election closes at 6 pm sharp, Australian time. With polling numbers so close, there is a chance of a hung parliament, which last happened during the Julia Gillard years.
"Australians did fear it (a hung parliament), there was absolutely the sense that people were concerned it led to instability.
"And Tony Abbott won at the end of the Gillard years, very much on the basis that the hung parliament and the minority government she'd led was chaotic.
"But it wasn't really chaotic. And as an increasing number of Australians vote for third parties, independents, the Greens, other options, I think Australians are warming to the idea of our government looking different."
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