Decoding the Republicans in Nevada

ANALYSIS: The Republican contenders fought it out on Tuesday in Nevada, the big desert state with the name that means "snowy".

Donald Trump speaks at a caucus night watch party at the Treasure Island Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo: AFP

The caucuses were chaotic and the turnout was a record for the third state running.

The result was exactly what the polls predicted, only more so.

"The Donald" is gaining momentum, popularity and delegates in a surge that must have the Republican Party leadership tearing their hair out. It is chairman Reince Priebus' worst nightmare and something the mainstream never believed possible.

The key take-aways

• In Nevada, Donald Trump finished with 46 percent, Marco Rubio with 24 percent and Ted Cruz with 21 percent. Mr Trump now has more than four times as many delegates as his nearest rival.
• Donald Trump is rewriting the rules of what a candidate can say or do and get away with it. He gained 45 percent of the Latino vote in Nevada after saying about Mexican immigrants "They're bringing drugs, they're bringing crime, they're rapists".
• Donald Trump won most every demographic except the people who cared most about "electability" or a candidate that "shares my values". That doesn't bode well for the general election but it's much worse for the other candidates.
• Donald Trump broke through the 33 percent ceiling that pundits thought was his natural limit. He's now 20 percent clear nationally, making him difficult to beat unless the field reduces to two candidates, which isn't likely until it's way too late to make a difference.
• Ted Cruz appears to be a dead man walking. His entire strategy this election was to be the darling of the ultra-conservative religious wing of the Republican Party - but Mr Trump beat him amongst evangelicals 41 percent to 26 percent. He was soundly beaten amongst conservative Christians by a thrice-married former casino owner who used to be pro-choice, who mused about dating his own daughter, whose immigration policy was repudiated by his own Presbyterian church, and described by the pope as "not Christian".
• Marco Rubio's vote didn't increase after Jeb Bush dropped out. So far he's managed 23 percent, 11 percent, 23 percent and 24 percent. On the upside, as the remaining viable mainstream candidate, he is starting to get some big spending backers.
• John Kasich has been holding out hope of surviving until the mid-west votes, but a new poll shows him losing his home state of Ohio to Mr Trump. He may soon decide to limp home before the humiliation gets worse.
• Oh, and in a novelty moment - Ben Carson, who is black, told CNN that if he wins he'll be America's first real black president because Barack Obama isn't authentically black.

More in this series

• Decoding South Carolina and Nevada
• What did New Hampshire teach us?
• Decoding Iowa: What are the takeaways?