Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Apia, Samoa. Photo: Commonwealth Secretariat / Supplied
Climate change, the Middle East, and the importance of small nations on the world stage are being picked as major talking points for the Commonwealth meeting in Samoa.
The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, CHOGM for short, has been held every two years since 1973. King Charles attended the last one in Rwanda in 2022 - standing in for his mother just months before her death.
This year about 6000 people are expected in Samoa, the first time a small Pacific nation has hosted. A majority of attendees - 33 of the 56 countries - are small states.
Otago University Professor of International Relations Robert Patman said climate change would be high on the agenda for them.
"I think climate change is the biggie, and it's no secret that the countries which are most endangered by climate change include the Pacific island nations," he said.
"In the Pacific region, sea levels are going up four times higher than in other parts of the world ... their number one national security concern is climate change."
He said those smaller states were feeling marginalised by the UN, and may want to reassert climate change as the top issue in international diplomacy.
"The Pacific islands region has been the subject of a lot of external interest and they are, I think, wanting to use the Commonwealth to assert their priorities. In other words, they're not going to buy into the paradigm that the world ... is going to be determined by US-China relations."
When the superpower's away
University of Waikato's Al Gillespie said Pacific and small nations would be able to talk more freely without those superpowers present at CHOGM.
He said CHOGM was easier to understand in some ways for what it was not.
"It's not the UN, so it's not every nation, and it's not security based so it's not something like NATO, it's not intelligence based so it's not something like the five eyes, it's not trade based."
He said New Zealand's support for the Pacific - and climate change mitigation - would be essential for the government to underline.
"The hard part is not just talking about it and promoting it. It's about acting to support it and that's a question of finance," he said.
"The topic of most concern for those in the Pacific is climate change. And that's where it will become more difficult for countries like New Zealand as they modify their positions, which are not quite as strict as they were previously. So I imagine there'll be some very difficult conversations in the corridors, because it's one thing to talk about climate change and the need to actually work towards mitigating it or preventing it. It's another thing to actually make sure that your domestic policies point in the same direction."
Another difficult topic would be international conflicts like those in Gaza and Ukraine.
Gillespie said it was unlikely the Commonwealth would publicly highlight those.
"They will try to find a common voice around one particular thing. This year, the theme is primarily around voices which aren't heard - and that's the voice of youth, the voice of women and the voice of the people - and so I think you will see a different interpretation of traditional values in a contemporary setting," he said.
"I can't see them making a declaration around the support for the international order in the rules-based system, but they may. I think you'll find most of the progress around this topic and the conflicts will be dealt with in the margins, because the debates themselves are being played out in much larger areas, like at the UN and at the Security Council."
Patman disagreed, saying because of the superpowers' absence the Commonwealth could - and had in the past - been at the cutting edge of overturning the status quo, for example in the struggle against apartheid.
"The rules are there for the weak, not for the strong. We've seen a lot of examples recently where might is being sold as right," he said.
"Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which is a breach of the UN Charter, illegal invasion; we've also seen catastrophe unfold in Gaza, where the United States has been complicit in Israel responding to a horrendous terrorist attack in a way which does not correspond to international law or humanitarian law and has been responsible for the death of more than 40,000 Palestinians."
Countries from the global south - many of whom had criticised the ongoing US support for Israel as hypocritical - would also be present, he said.
South Africa had started the International Court of Justice investigation into Israel's actions in Gaza, and New Zealand also recently voted out of step with five eyes partners at the UN, to say Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands is unlawful.
"So this sort of bonfire of international law at the international level is great concern for the majority of countries, middle powers and small powers that depend on rules, norms and principles in order to go about their everyday business," Patman said. "So I think there's going to be an attempt to articulate the message that it's important for the most powerful to walk the talk as well as advocate it.
"I'll be very surprised ... if South Africa doesn't also speak to the utter catastrophe that's unfolding in Gaza and Lebanon, which is the subject of the International Court of Justice rulings and also arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court for [Israel Prime Minister] Netanyahu, Mr [Yoav] Gallant the Defense Minister, and also a number of Hamas leaders."
He said international media often focused on the great powers, but he was expecting to see a reminder that small states and middle powers matter.
"We are moving in a direction in the 21st century where many problems that confront states ... have to be solved through self interested international cooperation, and I think the Commonwealth meeting will see an attempt at reassertion of agency by small states and middle powers.
"Problems like climate change, Covid-19 global pandemic, transnational terrorism, problems in the extended global economy. None of those problems can be fixed by great powers. If they could, they would. They can't."
Too early to say if Commonwealth will speak out on Gaza - Luxon
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said it was his first time attending the event, and described CHOGM as a unique group.
"When you step back and think about it, it actually brings 56 countries together - many of them I think almost three fifths of them are actually small states - but they do represent 2.5 billion people. And it's actually very young populations that most of the countries have [60 percent of the population] under the age of 29.
"It's a chance also to continue the work around the international rules based law and system, and to sort of keep advocating for and supporting good governance, good adherence to democratic norms, human rights, the international rules based system. And I think that's where a good part of the conversation will go."
He said it was too early, however, to say whether the Commonwealth would come together and speak out about the Gaza conflict.
"I'm not sure. We'll see where the conversation goes. It'd be premature for me to comment on issues that we'll, obviously, still to be discussed and amongst the leaders.
"I always make the best for New Zealand's national interests and advocate very strongly irrespective of which forum I'm in. It's actually about countries - irrespective of whether they're small, medium or large - actually working together, finding areas of common interests, like-minded values ... but also calling out where we have differences."
Labour's Defence spokesperson Peeni Henare was hopeful the grouping would speak up on Gaza.
"I hope it is, without a shadow of a doubt I hope it is because it is just too important to each and every one of us," he said.
"I'm not saying I expect a statement, but I certainly expect to become clear the position of a number of the Commonwealth nations with respect to this matter."
He thought the US support of Gaza would be a factor in those discussions.
"Many of the nations on their own are talking about it, but also it's a point where CHOGM as a significant player on the international scene, could use its influence in that manner to be able to discuss with the likes of the US their concerns around what's happening in the Middle East, whether it's direct or indirect."
Other opportunities
Luxon said Samoa chairing the meeting would inject a Pacific lens, and other priorities would include climate change, small states, youth, and gender equality.
It would also offer opportunities to engage with countries and leaders including traditional partners like Australia, Canada, and the UK as well as other countries New Zealand had not traditionally engaged with as much.
This would include India - which Luxon has promised to secure a free trade deal with - as well as African and Caribbean countries.
He also hoped the discussions would look into how to protect fisheries and exclusive economic zones in the Pacific, saying that was "a challenge most of us haven't been able to unlock".
It would also be essential for Luxon to visit those affected by or cleaning up from the New Zealand Navy's wrecked HMNZS Manawanui surveying ship.
"I think if he doesn't do that, that sends the kind of signal that, oh, we'll talk about it in boardrooms, but we won't actually be doing anything," Henare said.
"That's a lot of diesel [on the ship], and none of us are buying that it's washing away or that it's not leaking. So we need ... we need eyes on the ground. We need active discussions and that they're portrayed - not just back to New Zealand here, but to the world - about how serious New Zealand are taking the matter. If we don't, then it looks like lip service and I suspect Samoa will get a bit fed up with that," he said.
He clarified that he was not disagreeing with the Defence Force's assessment that the main tanks on the ship were not leaking, but "there's slicks that are affecting the wildlife and the marine reserve there, I can't ignore those either".
Luxon was not expecting the matter to be a point of contention.
"No. I mean, we've got a great relationship with Samoa ... we've got no loss in marine life, you've got no onshore pollution, we've removed just today the third container that was on the reef very safely and appropriately and now we've been able to mitigate some of the leaks ... out of the venting pipes.
"Samoa invited us in with all of our resources, and we've been doing this collaboratively."
New Zealand is sending about 260 Defence Force personnel, 100 police and 50 medical staff, along with five ambulances, the HMNZS Canterbury, and three NZDF helicopters to support CHOGM, and provided about $15m through the International Development Cooperation Fund.
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