By Wayne Cole and Alun John, Reuters
A customer pays attention to the stock market at a stock exchange in Hangzhou, east China's Zhejiang province. Photo: AFP / Long Wei
- S&P 500 futures drop 2.5 percent, set to confirm bear market
- Europe falls, Stoxx 600 off 4 percent, once-loved defence down 5.8 percent
- Futures price in extra 25bps Fed easing this year
- Safe havens yen and Swiss franc gain
- Oil dives 2 percent as global recession risks mount
Major stock indexes and US share futures plunged, with the S&P 500 poised to confirm a bear market, and volatility gauges spiked as US President Donald Trump showed no sign of backing away from his sweeping tariff plans.
Investors also bet the mounting risk of recession could see the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates as early as May, and futures markets moved swiftly to price in almost five quarter-point cuts in US rates this year, hurting the dollar on safe havens.
The carnage came as Trump told reporters that investors would have to take their "medicine" and he would not do a deal with China until the US trade deficit was sorted out.
"We're in the territory where this will be a named event when people write about things in 10 or 20 years time," said Tim Graf, head of macro strategy EMEA, State Street, adding that last week's selloff was being exacerbated by two things.
"Things become reflexive - derisking leads to derisking - and even though individual actors in markets think they are doing the rational thing, when they all do the same thing at the same time, it becomes irrational on the surface, a sort of tragedy of the commons.
"And secondly there is an intransigence element that will come to the fore because these guys (US policymakers) don't sound like they are going to change their minds."
Investors had thought the loss of trillions of dollars in wealth and the likely body blow to the economy would make Trump reconsider his plans.
"The size and disruptive impact of US trade policies, if sustained, would be sufficient to tip a still healthy US and global expansion into recession," said Bruce Kasman, head of economics at JPMorgan, putting the risk of a downturn at 60 percent.
S&P 500 futures slid 2.6 percent in volatile trade, while Nasdaq futures dropped 2.9percent, both down less than in early Asia trade but still suggesting sharp falls at the open on top of last week's almost $6 trillion in market losses.
The VIX 'fear index' of volatility also surged, rising as high as 60 for the first time since August, and signs of stress were also seen in credit markets.
The pain likewise engulfed European stocks, with the broad Stoxx 600 down 4 percent, with recent market darlings particularly hurt as investors were forced to sell what they owned.
Defence stocks tumbled 5.5 percent, while banks shed 4.5 percent on the day and are down more than 20 percent from their recent closing high, on course to confirm they are in a bear market.
In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng's 13 percent one-day slump was the largest since 1997, while in mainland China the blue-chip CSI 300 index was down 7 percent, only finding a floor when state media reported China's sovereign fund Central Huijin was a buyer.
The gloomier outlook for global growth kept oil prices under heavy pressure, following steep losses last week.
Brent fell $1.46 to $64.12 a barrel, while US crude lost $1.60 to $60.43 per barrel.
Never mind inflation
Growth fears caused Fed fund futures to price in an extra quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year, and markets swung to imply around a 50 percent chance the Fed could cut interest rates as soon as May.
That was despite chair Jerome Powell on Friday (local time) saying the central bank was in no hurry to cut rates, though in a sign of a possible conflict to come, Trump reiterated in a Monday social media post his view that the Fed should cut rates.
Higher rate cut bets gave a boost to Treasuries in early trade and the 10-year yield neared Friday's six-month low of 3.86 percent, though the move failed to hold and the benchmark was last flat on the day at 3.992 percent.
The rebound brought the dollar off its early lows against safe haven currencies, but it was still down 0.3 percent on the Japanese yen at 146.4, and 0.6 percent on the Swiss franc at 0.8556.
The euro was steady at $1.1005, seemingly benefiting from some nervousness about the dollar.
Investors were also betting that the imminent threat of recession would outweigh the likely upward shove to inflation from tariffs.
US consumer price figures out later this week are expected to show another rise of 0.3 percent for March, but analysts assume it is just a matter of time before tariffs push prices sharply higher, for everything from food to cars.
Rising costs will also put pressure on company profit margins, just as the earnings season gets underway with some of the big banks due on Friday. Around 87 percent of US companies will report between April 11 and May 9.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note they expect fewer companies than usual to offer guidance about their results for the second quarter or the year as a whole.
As well as inflation data, investors will be watching scheduled U.S. government bond auctions. A poor outcome "will be jumped on by investors" and would be negative for the dollar, said ING.
Even gold was swept up in the selloff, easing 0.3 percent to $3026 an ounce.
The drop left dealers wondering if investors were taking profits where they could cover losses and margin calls on other assets, in what could turn into a self-feeding fire sale.
- Reuters
