By David Ljunggren, Ismail Shakil and Rod Nickel for Reuters
Canada's Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney waves to supporters at a victory party in Ottawa. Photo: AFP/Dave Chan
- Liberals to retain power but currently short of a majority
- Prime Minister Carney says coming months to be challenging
- Backlash against Trump's tariffs, comments helped Liberals
- Conservative leader Poilievre loses seat
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals staged a major political comeback to retain power in parliamentary elections, fuelled by a backlash against US President Donald Trump's tariffs and comments on making Canada the 51st US state.
With almost all votes counted, results from Elections Canada showed that the Liberals had won 168 electoral districts on Monday, followed by the Conservatives with 144. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who just three months ago had looked certain to sweep the polls, lost his seat in the Ontario district of Carleton to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy.
The Liberals, who have been in power since November 2015, were 20 percentage points behind in surveys in January before the unpopular Justin Trudeau announced he was quitting as prime minister and Trump started threatening tariffs and annexation.
"It was the 'anybody-but-Conservative' factor, it was the Trump tariff factor, and then it was the Trudeau departure ... which enabled a lot of left-of-center voters and traditional Liberal voters to come back to the party," said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute polling firm.
Despite the gains, the Liberals currently are not likely to get the outright majority that Carney had sought to help him negotiate with Trump on the tariffs threatening Canada's economy. Votes, however, are still being counted in a number of districts with narrow margins.
The Liberals needed 172 of the House of Commons' 343 seats to be able to rule without the support of a smaller party. There will be at least one mandatory recount and the final result might not be known for days.
The Canadian dollar was largely flat against the US dollar, while Canada's main stock index was slightly higher.
Supporters watch the results come in on Election Day at the Conservative election party in Canada. Photo: AFP / Geoff Robins
The Globe and Mail newspaper, citing a senior Liberal official, said Carney would name a cabinet and reconvene Canada's House of Commons within two weeks. Another priority will be the annual budget, which is usually presented in March or April.
Carney, saying Trump wanted to break Canada, had repeatedly vowed to open talks on new security and economic ties with the US president as soon as possible after the election.
"Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over," Carney said in his victory speech in Ottawa early Tuesday morning.
"The system of open global trade anchored by the United States ... (which) has helped deliver prosperity for our country for decades, is over. These are tragedies, but it's also our new reality," he said.
Tough approach
Carney said the coming months would be challenging and require sacrifices.
He also has to deal with Danielle Smith, the conservative premier of the western oil-producing province of Alberta, who complains that the Liberals have undermined national unity with climate policies she says are designed to hurt the energy industry.
"A large majority of Albertans are deeply frustrated that the same government that overtly attacked our provincial economy almost unabated for the past 10 years has been returned to government," she said in a statement.
Poilievre conceded defeat and said his party would continue to hold the government to account.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer sent congratulations to Carney and his ruling Liberals. Carney had promised a tough approach to Washington's import tariffs and said Canada would need to spend billions to reduce its reliance on the US. But the right-of-center Conservatives showed unexpected strength.
A voter casts her ballot at a polling station on election day. Photo: AFP / Dave Chan
Minority governments in Canada rarely last longer than 2-1/2 years. If Carney strikes a deal with the left-leaning New Democrats and the Greens, he will be able to scrape together a slim majority.
"That's ... very fragile," said Philippe Lagasse, a professor and constitutional expert at Ottawa's Carleton University. "Every confidence vote will be stressful. Every by-election will be quite consequential."
Trump's threats spurred a wave of patriotism that boosted support for Carney, a political newcomer who had previously led the Canadian and British central banks.
Trump re-emerged as a campaign factor last week, declaring that he might raise a 25 percent tariff on Canadian-made cars because the US did not want them. He said earlier he might use "economic force" to make Canada the 51st state.
Carney has argued that his experience handling economic issues makes him the best leader to deal with Trump, while Poilievre tapped into concerns about the cost of living, crime and a housing crisis.
Trump, in a social media post on Monday, reiterated his call for Canada to become the 51st state.
Tensions with the US caused some supporters of two smaller parties, the left-leaning New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc Quebecois, to shift to the Liberals. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh conceded defeat in his own district and said he planned to quit as party leader.
New Zealand politicians congratulate Carney
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has congratulated Carney on his election victory.
In a post on X, Luxon said there was much New Zealand and Canada share in common, with more they can do together.
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters also sent his congratulations to Canada's Liberal Party.
He said New Zealand valued the close relationship with Canada and was looking forward to working with the new government.
-Reuters
(Additional reporting by RNZ)
