By David Ljunggren, Ismail Shakil and Rod Nickel for Reuters
Canada's Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney waves to supporters at a victory party in Ottawa. Photo: AFP/Dave Chan
- Liberals to retain power but short of a majority
- Prime Minister Carney says coming months to be challenging
- Backlash against Trump's tariffs, comments helped Liberals
- Conservative leader Poilievre set to lose seat
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals staged a major political comeback to retain power in parliamentary elections, fuelled by a backlash against US President Donald Trump's tariffs and comments on making Canada the 51st US state.
Preliminary results from Elections Canada showed the Liberals leading or elected in 168 electoral districts, followed by the Conservatives with 144.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who just three months ago had looked certain to sweep the polls, was on track to lose his own seat in the Ontario district of Carleton to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy.
The Liberals, who have been in power for more than nine years, were 20 percentage points behind in surveys in January before the unpopular Justin Trudeau announced he was quitting as prime minister and Trump started threatening tariffs and annexation.
"It was the 'anybody-but-Conservative' factor, it was the Trump tariff factor, and then it was the Trudeau departure ... which enabled a lot of left-of-center voters and traditional Liberal voters to come back to the party," said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute polling firm.
Supporters watch the results come in on Election Day at the Conservative election party in Canada. Photo: AFP / Geoff Robins
Despite the gains, the Liberals will not gain the outright majority that Carney had sought, to help him negotiate with Trump on the tariffs threatening Canada's economy.
They needed 172 of the House of Commons' 343 seats to be able to rule without the support of a smaller party.
"Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over," Carney said in a victory speech in Ottawa.
"The system of open global trade anchored by the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that, while not perfect, has helped deliver prosperity for our country for decades, is over.
"These are tragedies, but it's also our new reality."
Conservatives concede defeat
Carney said the coming months would be challenging and require sacrifices.
Poilievre conceded defeat and said his party would continue to hold the government to account.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Carney.
"The bond between Europe and Canada is strong and growing stronger," von der Leyen said. "I look forward to working closely together, both bilaterally and within the G7. We'll defend our shared democratic values, promote multilateralism, and champion free and fair trade."
Starmer said he looked forward to Carney's leadership on international issues, and to continuing to work closely "on defence, security, trade and investment".
Carney had promised a tough approach to Washington's import tariffs and said Canada would need to spend billions to reduce its reliance on the US. But the right-of-center Conservatives showed unexpected strength.
A voter casts her ballot at a polling station on election day. Photo: AFP / Dave Chan
Minority governments in Canada rarely last longer than 2-1/2 years. If Carney strikes a deal with the left-leaning New Democrats and the Greens, he will be able to scrape together a slim majority.
"That's ... very fragile," said Philippe Lagasse, a professor and constitutional expert at Ottawa's Carleton University. "Every confidence vote will be stressful. Every by-election will be quite consequential."
Trump spurs wave of patriotism
Trump's threats spurred a wave of patriotism that boosted support for Carney, a political newcomer who had previously led the Canadian and British central banks.
Trump re-emerged as a campaign factor last week, declaring that he might raise a 25 percent tariff on Canadian-made cars because the US did not want them. He said earlier he might use "economic force" to make Canada the 51st state.
Carney has argued that his experience handling economic issues makes him the best leader to deal with Trump, while Poilievre tapped into concerns about the cost of living, crime and a housing crisis.
Trump, in a social media post on Monday, reiterated his call for Canada to become the 51st state.
"Good luck to the Great people of Canada," he said. "Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago."
Tensions with the US caused supporters of two smaller parties, the left-leaning New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc Quebecois, to shift to the Liberals. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh conceded defeat in his own district and said he planned to quit as party leader.
The Liberals have now twice won a fourth consecutive election, the last time being in 2004.
New Zealand politicians congratulate Carney
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has congratulated Carney on his election victory.
In a post on X, Luxon said there was much New Zealand and Canada share in common, with more they can do together.
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters also sent his congratulations to Canada's Liberal Party.
He said New Zealand valued the close relationship with Canada and was looking forward to working with the new government.
-Reuters
(Additional reporting by RNZ)
