Tonga prepares to head to the polls on Thursday as fuel shortages continue in the capital

Silia Vailala and Lavelua Tui have been waiting to get gas for two hours at a petrol station in Nuku'alofa.

They're second in line, with at least a dozen vehicles behind them. It's mid-afternoon, and the sun is beating down.

The pair have gone from the heat of their car, to sitting in the shade of the shopfront next to the petrol station. For now, they're resting on a cheap plastic mat they've bought at the shop. Just behind them, on a camping chair, is the woman whose car is first in the queue.

None of them are moving until they get fuel.

"This has been happening for the last four months in a row," Vailala said.

Today, it'll be another four hours before the pumps are back in action. And right now, more cars are joining the queue, because, as Vailala said, they've all just heard that by 7pm, the tanker would have refilled the empty pumps.

The frustration is palpable.

"It's the uncertainty of it," she said.

"We can't do anything. We can't function because we need fuel to get around. And we don't hear anything - we're not given any information as to what's happening.

"Even the petrol station - they're going to open but there are no signs. There's no information. So, we have no idea what we're doing. We're just desperate, waiting, sitting."

Both women want the government to step up and find a solution.

It's been long enough, they said.

"My workers need that [fuel] as well to run the work site," Tui said.

"I do wish...[for] better changes and better planning."

Emergency fuel supplies coming

The pleas, and the queues at petrol stations, are being noticed right at the top.

On Monday, caretaker prime minister Dr Aisake 'Eke called a press conference on the issue.

He told media that emergency fuel supply ships were already en route, and that Tonga's two main suppliers - Total Energies and Pacific Energy - were working together on distribution problems.

In a separate interview with PMN he also revealed the depth of the problem.

Eke said it's been months in the making, with Total Energies and Pacific Energy deciding last year the companies' fuel storage facilities needed upgrading.

The ongoing maintenance resulted in a reduction in overall fuel storage capacity, which means there simply isn't enough fuel on-hand to meet Tonga's demand.

Additionally, any disruption to supply ships sharpens that shortfall in fuel. Pacific Energy country manager Paula Taufa told Matangi Tonga last week that the company's next shipment had been delayed due to technical problems with their tanker.

Vailala reckoned the solution is more than just sorting fuel supply problems.

She wants the government to be more ambitious and find ways to reduce the population's reliance on fuel.

"It's such a small island, and there's too many cars on the road.

"I've seen maybe one or two buses full of school students, but there's no public transport.

"The government maybe should think about having some public transport, some buses for locals to travel back and forth that will minimise the cars on the road and the fuel consumption."

Balancing tradition and accountability

That desire for more ambitious, future-looking policy goes beyond the day-to-day challenges people need addressed.

It extends to discussions among Tonga's policy wonks, keen to assess how well the Kingdom's constitutional arrangements are working and how that affects policies ultimately targeted at improving everyone's lives.

Malakai Kolo'amatagi, the registrar of Tonga National University, wrote a long opinion piece earlier this month assessing how representative parliament is, particularly since the country's significant 2010 constitutional reforms.

Koloamatangi highlighted shortfalls in women's representation in parliament, which staunch women's rights advocates like Ofa Guttenbeil-Likiliki have raised repeatedly over the years, as well as potential changes in electoral rules.

In celebrating 150 years of the country's constitution, he asked Tongans to consider what further democratisation of the constitution could practically look like - a particularly contemplative question given how entrenched the monarchy is in Tonga's constitution and society.

A former political advisor, Lopeti Senituli, was far less reflective about the status quo.

He pointed to the role of Crown Prince Tupouto'a Ulukalala in Eke's government and said it epitomises the ambiguity in the current constitutional set-up.

Eke appointed the Crown Prince to Cabinet from outside parliament at the beginning of the year, which according to the Constitution, he's permitted to do.

The prime minister is in fact allowed to appoint up to four Cabinet members from outside parliament.

Foreign Affairs and the Crown Prince

Since then, the Crown Prince has gone on to oversee the country's foreign affairs portfolio through the department of His Majesty's Diplomatic Services.

Parliament passed a law in August to create the department and replace the previous Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The Tonga parliament said in a statement the department aimed to regulate "the conduct of diplomatic and consular relations" and manage immigration services in accordance with the national interest "as determined by His Majesty and Cabinet".

Senituli said the arrangement effectively created a two-tier system, where the Crown Prince and his portfolios - which also includes defence - sit outside Cabinet processes.

"That position is in-between the King and the Prime Minister. So, the question of accountability is doubtful," Senituli said.

"Is he accountable to the King and Privy Council or is he accountable - like the other ministers - to the Prime Minister and Cabinet?"

He said that set-up, which could continue under the next government, only works if the Crown Prince is willing to hold himself to a higher standard than other parliamentarians. because he effectively holds a different rank as both Crown Prince and Cabinet minister compared to the other regular government ministers.

"He has to be more open to the public," Senituli said.

Eke's predecessor Hu'akavameiliku Siaosi Sovaleni reportedly clashed with King Tupou VI over key ministerial portfolios that were traditionally held by the monarchy.

The key players

Both Hu'akavameiliku and Eke are being touted as key players for the position of prime minister again.

While each of the men have not publicly stated outright that they want the top job, Eke has only had nine months in the role, while Hu'akavameiliku's tenure ended prematurely when he resigned in December 2024 in the face of a second motion of no confidence in his leadership.

Two nobles are also in the race, according to PMN's interview with Lord Vaea.

Vaea said both the speaker of parliament Lord Fakafanua and former Prime Minister Lord Tu'ivakano want to be prime minister.

At just 40 years of age, Lord Fakafanua is among Tonga's younger parliamentarians. He entered parliament at age 24, and at 27 was elected speaker - the youngest ever to hold the position.

Lord Tu'ivakano brings a lot more experience. He's a previous speaker of parliament and was the first prime minister after the 2010 constitutional reforms.

The position of prime minister will be voted for by Tonga's 26 elected representatives (17 people's representatives and nine noble representatives) once they've been confirmed following Thursday's polling day. The Prime Minister then names their cabinet after they've been selected.

The process for prime minister is separate to the general election and is run by parliament, rather than the Electoral Commission.

In regard to the general election count, the Supervisor of Elections, Pita Vuki, said they are hoping to announce the results of the count on Thursday evening.

"When they close the voting at four, they will do the counting at their polling stations," Vuki said.

"They will announce the results of those polling stations there, and then they will come back with their election report.

"And we just take them and put them on the result template that we have prepared for each constituency, and hopefully, on the night of the election, we will be able to announce the results."