There are a large number of properties for sale at the moment. Photo: RNZ
First-home buyers had a record year last year, responsible for 26.1 percent of all property purchases.
But if you are in the market for your first home, you might be wondering whether you need to jump now, or whether you have time on your side.
Property research firm Corelogic said there was good news - although investors and existing homeowners were likely to be more active this year, conditions should still suit those in the market for their first home.
Economist Kelvin Davidson said first-home buyers were tapping into KiwiSaver, making use of banks' low-deposit lending allowances, and buying new builds to get around the loan-to-value rules entirely.
First-home buyers were 27 percent of new-build buyers in 2024, Davidson said.
Many first-home buyers were looking at new builds. Photo: RNZ / Nate McKinnon
The large number of properties available for sale meant buyers had a lot to choose from, he said.
A softer market helped, too - the median price paid by first-home buyers was $698,000 last year from $719,000 in 2022.
"I think conditions will generally be in first-home buyers' favour over the next little while.
"It looks if anything as though mortgage rates will fall a bit further... prices are still down 15 percent or 20 percent from the peak. There are reasons to be reasonably confident about first-home buyers' ability to keep buying.
"If predictions for house prices are right and they go up 5 percent on average this year, I don't think that's necessarily an incentive to rush."
But on the other hand, Davidson said, first-home buyers who had finance approved and found a house they liked might not see a reason to wait.
"There are always trade-offs, even a 1 percent rise in house prices means that bit of extra deposit is required. But that's offset against the chance mortgage rates fall a bit further... there are always different things to contemplate."
He said investors' market share was 21.7 percent in 2024 compared to an average since 2005 of 24.5 percent.
With overall sales numbers expected to rise from 80,000 in 2024 to 90,000 in 2025, it was likely all buyer groups would do more deals in 2025, Davidson said.
First-home buyers' market share might decrease as investors became more active again, but that did not mean they would necessarily buy fewer houses.
"They could see their market share drop to 24 percent this year and still purchase about 1000 more properties than in 2024. In other words, a lower market share doesn't mean the demise of first-home buyers."
For investors, a big fall in the top-up required to service a loan on a rental property was a significant shift, he said.
"If you plug in a purchase price of $780,000 - the median paid by mortgaged [investors] in 2024- assume 30 percent deposit, 4 percent gross rental yield, interest-only mortgage and 100 percent deductibility, a drop in mortgage rates from around 7 percent to about 5.5 percent broadly cuts the weekly cash requirement from $350 to $200.
"That's still significant for a new investor, but much less of a hurdle than before."
It would probably be a "fairly balanced" market for everyone this year, with opportunities for all buyer groups, Davidson said.
Owner-occupiers who wanted to move could find increased activity freed up "sales chains", where the purchase of one property was relying on the sale of another.
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