By Brett H. McGurk, CNN
US President Donald Trump. Photo: AFP / Brendan Smialowski
Analysis: US President Donald Trump makes no secret of his aim to win a Nobel Peace Prize. His supporters say he deserves the prize already, while his detractors mock the pursuit entirely - pointing to his controversial policies as disqualifying.
Trump inherited two of the worst conflicts of this new century, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. On both fronts, the outlines of a settlement are now in view. It's less clear whether Trump and his team can deliver peace. But if they do, the Nobel committee can and should recognise the achievement and award Trump its coveted medallion.
Let's start in Ukraine.
After nine months of a zigzagging policy and a summer of summitry with Putin, Zelensky, and European leaders, as well as a disastrous Russian offensive resulting in no territory gained and more than 20,000 Russian casualties, the shape of a deal may well be emerging - one with two main elements:
- First, a security guarantee with commitments from the US and NATO allies to supply Ukraine's military and enable the defence of its sovereign territory against future invasions.
- Second, some land swaps along the current line of contact in eastern Ukraine to reestablish secure borders and set conditions for longer term peace.
That is the deal, with Ukraine unlikely to permit any agreement on land swaps separate from a security guarantee, and Russia unlikely to stop its disastrous war without a settlement on the territorial map.
Getting there will require a sustained commitment of military supplies from the US and NATO to Ukraine, including air defences and longer-range missiles. It will also require increasing sanctions and economic pressure on Moscow. After the recent UN General Assembly meetings in New York, Trump appears to have endorsed this approach, with US military equipment reaching Ukraine via purchases by NATO allies.
Ukrainian rescuers work at the site of heavily damaged residential buildings following a Russian air attack on the outskirts of Kyiv, on 28 September 2025. Photo: AFP/ROMAN PILIPEY
For the first time, the Europeans are discussing using over $300 billion (NZ$516b) in frozen Russian assets as a loan to Ukraine to help its economy and defence base withstand the ongoing war.
So long as the White House remains consistent in this more determined approach, the odds will increase that Putin ultimately has no choice but to conclude a deal and save face. Russia has now suffered over 1 million military casualties in Putin's war of choice, and its economy is increasingly stressed, with interest rates approaching 20 percent, and budgets dependent upon energy exports vulnerable to sanctions.
If Trump can keep the pressure on Moscow together with shaping the contours of the deal to the end the war, a settlement is possible before the Nobel committee chooses its 2026 prize one year from now.
Ending the Gaza War
Trump entered office with a three-phase ceasefire in place from the Biden administration, designed to end the war in Gaza altogether with a second phase envisioning interim security and political structures, along with a massive reconstruction program for the enclave. The framework for the "day after" had been developed with details to be finalized during the first phase, a period of six weeks in which hostages were to be released and assistance surged into Gaza.
Tragically, the ceasefire broke down after the first phase in March. The last six months have seen some of the most intensive Israeli military operations to date, together with a humanitarian crisis, during which Israel blockaded Gaza's borders for the first time.
Two weeks ago, any claim to the Nobel prize seemed dubious due to the situation in Gaza.
Talks had stalled, and Israel was beginning a controversial military operation to seize Gaza City and the northern quarter of the Gaza strip. Senior Israeli officials also claimed that Israel planned to occupy Gaza, perhaps resettle its territory with Israelis, and force out Gazans as they did so.
The situation was moving from bad, to worse.
Tents shelter people displaced by war in northwestern Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip, as delegations from Hamas, Israel and the United States hold talks in Egypt, on 6 October, 2025. Photo: OMAR AL-QATTAA / AFP
That changed last week, after Trump presented a 20-point plan to end the war, with Israel renouncing annexation or occupation and Hamas required to relinquish its control over Gaza as well as release all hostages, living and the dead. This plan resembles what had been envisioned for Phase 2 of the January deal, and it has received Israel's endorsement, as well as support from Arab and Muslim-majority states, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Pakistan, and Indonesia.
Having worked on this issue and helped lead negotiations for the only two ceasefires of this awful war, including the deal concluded in January, I commend the president and his team, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for finalising this program and for the diplomacy required to build such a broad group of countries in support.
There is now consensus that Hamas cannot remain in control of Gaza once this war ends, and that Gaza requires an international effort organised by the US to restore security and establish new governance structures to displace Hamas, which has ruled Gaza for nearly two decades.
Hamas last week offered its own qualified endorsement of the plan, and talks are now taking place in Cairo to organise the release of hostages together with an exchange of Palestinian prisoners. I suspect that Hamas will seek delays and reject the obligation to disarm and abandon its security control of Gaza. Trump is right to keep the pressure on Hamas, writing on Saturday that delays are unacceptable, as well as on Isreal.
This week may determine whether Hamas is finally prepared to release the hostages, and the group should hear from all countries with influence to do so without further wrangling.
But the plan makes clear that it will be implemented regardless of what Hamas says in areas the group no longer controls. This can hasten the end of the war, and a new reality of a Gaza without Hamas, a necessary condition for longer term peace.
Israel must do its part as well, including the renunciation of any plan to reoccupy or resettle Gaza - essential for any such longer-term initiatives, as is Israel's acceptance in Trump's plan of "a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood."
Hamas militants keep watch from a building over an area before handing over two Israeli hostages to a Red Cross team in Khan Yunis, southern Gaza Strip, on 15 February 2025, as part of the hostage-prisoner exchange. Photo: Bashar Taleb / AFP
At bottom, the US has now outlined the end to the Gaza war and the pathway to longer-term coexistence and peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Many of its clauses are broad principles, but the requirements are clear: Hamas must return all hostages and renounce its control of Gaza in exchange for many Palestinian prisoners, a ceasefire, and pullback of Israel forces. Anyone who wants to stop this horrific war should now call on Hamas to accept the terms without delay.
Trump's ticket to Oslo
The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded each year on 10 December, the date of Alfred Nobel's death in 1896. The committee chooses its recipient two months earlier - on 10 October. Trump is no doubt hoping he may secure the award this week. That is highly unlikely. But next year marks the 125th anniversary of the prize, and Trump may well have a claim.
I wrote in a previous column that 2026 will be a gateway between a world of consolidation and stabilization or increasing disorder and conflict. The wars in Gaza and Ukraine are two touchstones that if resolved would help enhance integration and interconnectivity across the Middle East and Europe with, respectively, Iranian and Russian ambitious deterred, and a knock-on strategic consequence of reducing risks of conflict over Taiwan.
President Trump and his team deserve credit for helping to put in place the frameworks for ending both wars. If they can now follow through and not lose focus over the coming year (a big if), then Trump will credibly lay claim as to the 125th Nobel Peace Prize.
Whatever one might think of President Trump and his administration, on these two most essential issues of war and peace, we should all hope that he succeeds.
-CNN
