By David Goldman, CNN
US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping shake hands as they arrive for talks at the Gimhae Air Base. Photo: AFP / Andrew Caballero-Reynolds
Analysis: US President Donald Trump made an extraordinary concession in his landmark deal with Chinese leader Xi Jinping Thursday (South Korea time): In exchange for promises that China will crack down on fentanyl, the United States will shave 10 percent off the tariffs it charges on Chinese goods.
On the surface, it's a promising deal that could restore some of the trade that tariffs had stymied between the world's two largest economies. The reduction will bring the minimum tariff on Chinese imports down to 20 percent, and the average tariff rate will fall to around 47 percent. That's lofty compared to many other US trading partners but still more in line with the rest of the world.
It could give some relief to US consumers, and it means Chinese goods can shed the outcast status in the United States that Trump's high tariffs had imposed on them.
But the tariff reduction is also a significant gamble for the Trump administration, which has encountered a persistent problem in its unprecedented trade war with China: Trump has been bested by Xi in the trade war at every turn. Even the fact that they met in person Thursday means Trump has already given into China's demands. And, as history has proven in these on-again, off-again deals, it's not clear the United States will get anything serious back by giving in on fentanyl tariffs.
Meanwhile, Trump risks further eroding America's relationship with its key allies while gaining a friendlier relationship with its chief economic adversary.
Trump is betting this time will be different. History suggests otherwise.
A screen shows news coverage of the meeting between US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping in South Korea, outside a shopping mall in Beijing on October 30, 2025. Photo: AFP / Adek Berry
China's successful fight against Trump
Trump wanted four main outcomes from his tariffs on China: A reduction in fentanyl coming into the United States, a return of manufacturing to the United States, restoration of the balance of trade and a sale of TikTok's US assets.
The administration has made real progress on all four: China has pointed to strong actions it has taken toward preventing the export of the foundational chemicals used to make fentanyl. Dozens of companies have promised multibillion-dollar investments in US manufacturing. The US-China trade gap hit a 21-year low in August. And Trump and Xi agreed to the framework of a TikTok deal.
But the frosty relationship has also caused major problems for the United States. China has restricted the export of rare-earth minerals - crucial elements in electronics and military equipment. It has refused to buy US soybeans, devastating American farmers. And it has made life more difficult for some key US businesses by launching antitrust investigations. China also has put in place hefty tariffs of its own on US imports.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, left, looks on as US President Donald Trump speaks during his meeting with China's President Xi Jinping at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan on October 30, 2025. Photo: AFP / Andrew Caballero-Reynolds
Despite several rounds of talks with US trade negotiators, China has continued to slow-walk promises to the Trump administration. Rare earths, in particular, became a key sticking point, and earlier guarantees of a free-flowing rare-earth market never materialised. Beijing has even tightened its controls by expanding its restrictions earlier this month.
Under Thursday's deal, China agreed to roll back those newly imposed rules, though the initial restrictions unveiled in April appear to remain in place.
Meanwhile, TikTok's future in the US remains uncertain after rounds of trade talks between the two countries. Beijing stopped short of confirming a final deal on TikTok has been reached following the Xi-Trump meeting, pledging only to work with the US to "properly address" the issue.
Trump has frequently acknowledged that China often fails to hold up its end of the bargain - including when he announced in November 2024 that he would raise tariffs on China because of the fentanyl crisis.
"I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States - But to no avail," Trump posted on Truth Social several weeks after Election Day. Then President-elect Trump claimed that Chinese officials promised him the country would execute drug dealers caught funnelling drugs into the United States but "never followed through."
Why Trump is making a deal
So why would Trump make a deal with China on fentanyl now if Xi keeps reneging?
First, China has taken honest-to-goodness action on fentanyl. For example, the country over the summer added two more elements used to make fentanyl to its list of controlled substances. When criminal networks adapted and began selling those elements on the black market, China worked to thwart those exports, too.
Trump on Thursday cited China's "very strong action" in cracking down on fentanyl as a reason for lowering US tariffs on Chinese goods.
It appears that some progress has been made on reducing fentanyl emanating from China in recent years - and there's some limited evidence that China's actions are making an impact since Trump's tariffs went into effect. The US Drug Enforcement Agency in an annual report released in May said fentanyl purity declined throughout 2024, consistent with indications that fentanyl cooks in Mexico were having trouble obtaining key precursor chemicals. US Customs and Border Protection have also reported that fentanyl stopped at the border was down in 2024 and is on pace to fall again in 2025.
Trump may or may not agree that China has made progress on fentanyl, but he sounded a different note on the subject this week than he has sung in the past. He claimed Wednesday that "China is going to be working with me" on restricting the drug.
"I believe that they're going to help us with the fentanyl situation," Trump said. "They're going to be doing what they can do."
Second, China holds significant leverage over the United States. Trump's tariffs have backfired in numerous ways, including by angering US farmers - a key voting bloc - and creating a rare-earth shortage. China has also refused to fully open up their market to American AI chips, a major Trump goal to help cement US dominance in artificial intelligence.
Tariffs remain one key lever that Trump can pull, even as China has found markets outside the United States willing to buy its goods, blunting the damage Trump's levies have imposed.
Still, reducing tariffs represents one key Chinese demand. Trump's meeting with Xi was another.
Giving up some of that ground - particularly if China has shown some goodwill on fentanyl - gives Trump some ability to get what he wants out of these negotiations. In a vague statement on Thursday, China said it will make "corresponding adjustments" to its countermeasures on fentanyl-related tariffs after Trump agreed to cut the levies by half.
What's next?
A potential problem for the United States: The other two countries on which the Trump administration has imposed fentanyl tariffs - Mexico and Canada - probably watched Thursday's announcement with a raised eyebrow and some raised blood pressure.
Both countries have also made real efforts to restrict fentanyl coming over the US border. And fentanyl coming in from Canada has never posed a major problem, making up less than 1 percent of overall fentanyl coming into the United States.
Nevertheless, Trump has threatened to raise Mexico's and Canada's tariffs while he is reducing tariffs on China. The deal could improve America's relationship with its chief economic adversary while angering key allies and its two biggest trading partners.
Meanwhile, the reduction in tariffs could help Americans who are paying the price. Albeit slowly, tariffs have raised prices in the United States. Any reduction will be welcome news for inflation-wary consumers.
-CNN
