All Blacks haka Photo: Photosport
It seems remarkable that the two nations whose very identity is defined by rugby are meeting in a World Cup final for only the second time on Sunday but one of New Zealand and South Africa will emerge as historical top dog with a record fourth triumph.
As South African fans are never slow to remind everybody, the World Cup's statistics are slightly skewed by the absence of the Springboks from the first two, due to their sporting isolation because of Apartheid.
That means that should they triumph on Saturday they will have an incredible 50% success rate - four finals from eight tournaments.
New Zealand won the inaugural event in 1987 then became the first to win back-to-back titles in 2011 and 2015 - an achievement defending champions South Africa are also desperate to emulate.
Photo: Ian Kington / AFP
Their previous final meeting was in 1995, the first World Cup South Africa were allowed into. The Springboks triumphed 15-12 after extra time to produce one of the most iconic images in the history of sport, and of their nation, when President Nelson Mandela presented the trophy to captain Francois Pienaar.
There was one black player, Chester Williams, in that team but 28 years on the sport in South Africa is truly multicultural and is epitomised by black captain Siya Kolisi, who is seeking to emulate Richie McCaw in lifting the trophy twice.
That wider picture, however, is for the future as the respective teams focus on the more immediate task of trying to impose their quality and tactics over 80 minutes on Saturday.
Controversial policy
South Africa have reverted to their controversial policy of a bench of seven forwards and one back, throwing all their chips behind the belief that their forward power, supplemented by the 'bomb squad' in the second half, will grind down their rivals.
The selections too might have been influenced by the physical and mental toll taken by their last two matches as they twice came from behind to beat France and England, both by a point, in brutally physical and drainingly tense knockout games.
Ardie Savea of New Zealand in action against the Springboks 2023. Photo: PHOTOSPORT
They have opted to start with Handre Pollard at flyhalf. He joined the squad only as an injury replacement but, having kicked South Africa to their final triumph over England in 2019, nailed the 77th-minute 48-metre penalty that beat them again in last week's semi-final.
Their matchday squad contains 14 players involved in the 2019 final and they were largely the team who humiliated New Zealand 35-7 at Twickenham in August.
That record New Zealand defeat, coming off a year that featured a first home loss to Argentina and a home series defeat to Ireland, meant the All Blacks entered the tournament in the rare situation of not being favourites.
Losing the opening match to hosts France further dampened expectations but they turned things round in the remaining pool games before their epic quarter-final against Ireland. That was when their precision reached new heights of excellence with not a single handling error.
They cruised past Argentina in the semi-finals, enabling coach Ian Foster, who stands down after the tournament, to give key players extra rest.
Among them is the incredible lock Sam Whitelock, 35, who will be winning his 153rd cap off the bench as he seeks to become the first player to win three World Cups.
Will Jordan was the pick of the backs. Photo: Photosport / Alan Lee
At the other end of the experience spectrum is winger Will Jordan, whose eight tries in France equal the tournament best.
With Jordie Barrett sparkling at centre, flyhalf Richie Mo'unga in the form of his life and back rower Ardie Savea seemingly operating on a higher plane than anyone else in the sport, it suddenly seems impossible to understand how the All Blacks were ever written off.
Their freshness makes them slight bookmakers' favourites but, as South Africa have shown over the last two weeks and over 102 years of battling the All Blacks for global rugby supremacy, they will not hand over the Webb Ellis Cup without the most ferocious of battles.
Teams
New Zealand: 15-Beauden Barrett, 14-Will Jordan, 13-Rieko Ioane, 12-Jordie Barrett, 11-Mark Telea, 10-Richie Mo'unga, 9-Aaron Smith, 8-Ardie Savea, 7-Sam Cane (captain), 6-Shannon Frizell, 5-Scott Barrett, 4-Brodie Retallick, 3-Tyrel Lomax, 2-Codie Taylor, 1-Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16-Samisoni TaukeiG��aho, 17-Tamaiti Williams, 18-Nepo Laulala, 19-Sam Whitelock, 20-Dalton Papalii, 21-Finlay Christie, 22-Damian McKenzie, 23-Anton Lienert-Brown.
South Africa: 15-Damian Willemse, 14-Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13-Jesse Kriel, 12-Damian de Allende, 11-Cheslin Kolbe, 10-Handre Pollard, 9-Faf de Klerk, 8-Duane Vermeulen, 7-Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6-Siya Kolisi (captain), 5-Franco Mostert, 4-Eben Etzebeth, 3-Frans Malherbe, 2-Bongi Mbonambi, 1-Steven Kitshoff
Replacements: 16-Deon Fourie, 17-Ox Nche, 18-Trevor Nyakane, 19-Jean Kleyn, 20-RG Snyman, 21-Kwagga Smith, 22-Jasper Wiese, 23-Willie Le Roux.
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England) (Reporting by Mitch Phillips; editing by Ken Ferris)
A selection of facts and statistics
* New Zealand have won 59% of their tests against South Africa (W62 D4 L39), despite this it is their lowest win rate against any nation; the Springboks have won three of the last five games against the All Blacks (L2), as many as they'd won in their previous 22 (D1 L18), including a 28-point win in their most recent clash in August this year (35-7)- New Zealand's heaviest ever test defeat.
* New Zealand and South Africa have met five times previously at the men's Rugby World Cup; the Springboks won their initial two clashes, including the only time they've faced each other in the final (1995), however the All Blacks have won their last three meetings.
* New Zealand and South Africa have each won the men's Rugby World Cup on a record three occasions, while this will be the fifth final in a row to have been won by either the All Blacks or the Springboks (twice each); the last time a nation other than New Zealand or South Africa lifted the Webb Ellis Cup was in 2003.
* South Africa are the only nation to boast a 100& win rate in Rugby World Cup finals and they will be aiming to become just the second side to win back-to-back finals, after New Zealand (2011-15); the All Blacks have won three of their four finals with their only defeat at this stage coming against the Springboks in 1995.
* South Africa have never conceded a try in a Rugby World Cup final, while they've kept their opponents try-less in 47% of their knockout fixtures (9/19), the best such rate of any nation; meanwhile, the All Blacks have scored a try in each of their last 38 matches in the Rugby World Cup, last failing to score in the Bronze Final in 1999, against South Africa.
* New Zealand (4.3) and South Africa (3.3) have averaged more points per 22 entry than any other nation at this year's World Cup, while they also rank first and second respectively for points conceded per opposition entry (New Zealand 1.1, South Africa 1.2).
* New Zealand have averaged the most line breaks (13.5) and best gainline success rate (61%) of any side at this year's World Cup, while South Africa have committed 3+ tacklers on 11.5% of their carries, the best such rate of any nation, just ahead of the All Blacks (11.4%); only Ireland (47.7%) have scored a try from a higher percentage of their line breaks than South Africa (47.1%) or New Zealand (46.9%) this year.
* New Zealand have the best lineout success rate at this year's World Cup (97%, SA 4th best-88%) while only three teams have a better scrum success rate than the All Blacks (94%), however South Africa have won 1.2 penalties per game on the opposition scrum this campaign, more than any other side, with only France (3.0) averaging more scrum penalties per game overall than the Springboks (2.7).
* Will Jordan has scored eight tries at this year's tournament, more than any other player; in fact, it's the joint most by any player in a Rugby World Cup campaign, alongside two All Blacks (Jonah Lomu in 1999, Julian Savea in 2015) and a Springbok (Bryan Habana in 2007).
* New Zealand's Sam Whitelock could become the first player to win the Rugby World Cup three times, having also lifted the trophy in 2011 and 2015; he is the most capped All Black in test history (152) and has made more Rugby World Cup appearances than any other player (25). Meanwhile, Vincent Koch could win his 50th cap for South Africa.
- Reuters
