Quarterback Justin Herbert in action for Los Angeles Chargers. Photo: Icon Sportswire/Photosport
Super Bowl LIX
Kick-off: 12:30pm, Monday, 10 February
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Live blog updates on RNZ Sport
With the cut and thrust of the regular season now behind them, the 14 remaining NFL contenders can turn their attention to the playoffs and - ultimately - a spot in Super Bowl LIV next month.
The winners of each conference - Kansas City Chiefs (American Football Conference) and Detroit Lions (National Football Conference) - have the week off to regroup, while the other 12 teams contest the wild card round to join them.
Here's how they stack up:
Sunday, 12 January
10.30am Houston Texans v Los Angeles Chargers
NRG Stadium, Houston
Head to head: Did not play
Texans (10-7)
AFC South division champions
No Super Bowl championships
After finishing 10-7 last season with rookie quarterback CJ Stroud at the helm, Houston were expected to become a real force in his second campaign, but this did not eventuate. Of all the playoff teams, the Texans rank ahead of only Pittsburg Steelers for total offence and behind nine teams that did not reach the post-season.
Stroud ranked 15th in average yards thrown per game (291.2) and he was the second-most sacked quarterback (52) in the competition, an indictment on his own indecision and the lack of protection from his offensive line.
He still has some weapons in wide receiver Nico Collins and running back Joe Mixon, but the Texans offence suffered a blow, when receiver Stefon Diggs, an off-season acquisition from Buffalo Bills, tore up his knee in October, ruling him out for the rest of the season.
On the other side of the ball, Houston ranked fifth on defence, with Derek Stingley Jr and Calen Bullock among the leaders in pass interceptions, and Danielle Hunter one of the best at sacking the opposition quarterback.
They can probably thank their defence for their winning record, but their weak division also guaranteed them playoff inclusion - none of their rivals finished above .500.
Quarterback CJ Stroud in action for Houston Texans. Photo: Icon Sportswire/Photosport
Chargers (11-6)
Wild card
No Super Bowl championships
LA scored the most-talked about off-season coaching coup, when they lured Jim Harbaugh from reigning college champions Michigan University and he has guided them to their best finish among their five years with quarterback Justin Herbert.
Like Houston, they are probably better defensively than offensively. JK Dobbins ranks as their lead running back, with rookie receiver Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston their best aerial threats, but Herbert, whose three interceptions are the least among starting quarterbacks, has probably made the best of an average support crew.
Also, kicker Cameron Dicker - yes, Dicker the kicker - ranked second equal among all pointscorers for the season.
By contrast, the Chargers led the league in least points allowed, keeping opponents to just 17.7 per game, with linebacker Daiyan Henley among the leading tacklers.
Harbaugh has managed to turn around a losing culture that has seen the Chargers underachieve badly in past seasons. In their only previous visit to the playoffs under Herbert, they led Jacksonville Jaguars 27-0 before halftime of a 2022 wild card game, but lost to a field goal on the final play - the third-biggest choke in NFL playoff history.
The Chargers will need to draw on that culture, after a week disrupted by wildfires near their training facility that have limited the amount of time they can spend on the field.
Prediction: Chargers get that first playoff win under Herbert, but won't break that Super Bowl drought this year.
2pm Baltimore Ravens v Pittsburgh Steelers
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Head to head: Steelers won 34-17 and 18-16
Ravens (12-5)
AFC North division champions
Super Bowl champions 2000, 2012
Coached by John Harbaugh - older brother of Chargers coach Jim - the Ravens are regarded as perennial contenders behind two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson. Known primarily as a runner, Jackson became the all-time leading rusher among quarterbacks this season, but has also upgraded his passing game.
He has thrown four perfect games in his career, tied for the most ever, and his 41:4 touchdown to interception ratio was the best in the league this season, helping Baltimore to the No.1 offensive ranking.
Baltimore massively ungraded Jackon's support cast with the addition of blockbuster running back Derrick Henry, who led the league in rushing touchdowns (16) and finished second in yards run for the season.
The aerial game isn't quite as strong and takes a hit, with leading receiver Zay Flowers ruled out for this game with knee injury. Look for tightends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely to pick up some slack in that regard.
Previous championships have been built on defence and the Ravens have retained enough of that pedigree to remain among the best stoppers in the competition, with linebacker Roquan Smith one of the leading tacklers in the league. They conceded the least number of rushing yards this season.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson in action for Baltimore Ravens. Photo: Icon Sportswire/Photosport
Steelers (10-7)
Wild card
Super Bowl champions 1974, 1975, 1978, 1979, 2005, 2008
Since taking command of the Steelers 2007, Mike Tomlin has incredibly never coached a losing season. He's guided them to 12 playoffs and a Super Bowl in 2008.
Pittsburgh entered this season undecided over its quarterback position and started 4-2 behind Justin Fields, before handing the keys to veteran Russell Wilson, who won a Super Bowl with Seattle Seahawks in 2013.
They won six of their next seven games behind Wilson, but ran into a brutal closing schedule that saw them lose four straight. During that time, the questionable chemistry between Wilson and top receiver George Pickens was not improved by injury to Pickens.
Kicker Chris Boswell was the league's leading scorer, kicking 41 field goals, but only 35 extra points, perhaps another indication of how Pittsburgh have struggled to find the endzone.
The Steelers have relied heavily on their defence, which has been just good enough to get them across the line, led by star linebacker TJ Wat, who is especially adept at tackling opponents for loss of yards. They also led the league in takeaways, including 16 fumble recoveries.
Prediction: Baltimore and Jackson have too much firepower for the plucky Steelers.
Monday, 13 January (NZT)
7am Buffalo Bills v Denver Broncos
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Head to head: Did not play
Bills (13-4)
AFC East division champions
No Super Bowl championships
Buffalo are notorious for reaching the Super Bowl four straight years (1990-93) and losing all four, which is either amazing consistency or ultimate futility, depending on your point of view. They haven't returned since and are usually among the favourites, behind quarterback Josh Allen, who is favoured to be MVP this season.
Allen's quarterback rating is second only behind Lamar Jackson, but he is a dual threat, running for 12 touchdowns, also second among quarterbacks, behind Jalen Hurts.
The Bills lost receiver Stefon Diggs to Houston in the off-season and no-one has really stood up to fill that void, but running back James Cook scrambled for 1000 yards and finished second in rushing touchdowns to anchor the ground game.
As a team, Buffalo ranked second in points scored, behind only Detriot Lions.
Quarterback Josh Allen in action for Buffalo Bills. Photo: Icon Sportswire/Photosport
Broncos (10-7)
Wild card
Super Bowl championships 1997, 1998, 2015
Denver have gone 10 years since their last playoff appearance and have done so under coach Sean McVay, who won a Super Bowl with Los Angeles Rams, and rookie playmaker Bo Nix, who was only the sixth quarterback taken in the 2024 NFL draft.
Nix has been workmanlike, probably better than most expected, and gives the Broncos something to build on for the future. His 26-of-29 passing for 321 yards and four touchdowns in the final week clinched Denver's spot in the post-season, albeit against a Kansas City Chiefs outfit resting their star players.
His best attacking weapon is receiver Courtland Sutton, who caught for 1000 yards and had eight touchdowns, but the Broncos support cast can use some beefing up for next season.
They can certainly thank their defence for their appearance in the playoffs, holding opponents to less than 19 points and 100 yards rushing per game, with linebacker Nik Bonitto ranking third in sacks.
Cornerback Pat Surtain had four interceptions and led the league in yards gained, highlighted by a length-of-the field return for a touchdown against Las Vegas Raiders.
Prediction: Buffalo will overcome the Broncos, who have done well to get this far, but must still unseat defending champions Kansas City just to reach the Super Bowl again.
10.30am Philadelphia Eagles v Green Bay Packers
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Head to head: Eagles won 34-29
Eagles (14-3)
NFC East division champion
Super Bowl champions 2017
Philadelphia unreeled a 10-game winning streak through the middle of the season and 12 of their last 13 games, marred only by a narrow loss to Washington Commanders, when the Eagles lost quarterback Jalen Hurts to concussion.
Hurts hasn't played since then and remains in concussion protocol three weeks later, making him questionable for this wild card game. While that would cripple many teams, the Eagles have based their dominance on the ground game of former New York Giants rusher Saquon Barkley, who enjoyed a breakout season to lead the league in running yards.
His success came at a cost to the passing game, with receiver AJ Brown voiced his dissatisfaction at not seeing more of the ball. Brown is also nursing a knee injury heading into this game.
Defensively, Philadelphia have been the best at limiting opponents in yards per game and especially closing down their passing threat, with linebacker Zack Baun among the league's leading tacklers.
If Hurts can't play, Kenny Pickett will likely get the start, after leading them to victory over Dallas Cowboys last month.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts in action for Philadelphia Eagles. Photo: Icon Sportswire/Photosport
Packers (11-6)
Wild card
Super Bowl champions 1966, 1967, 1996, 2010
Green Bay have enjoyed historic success based on superstar quarterbacks, with Bart Starr masterminding their first two championship titles, Brett Favre their third and Aaron Rodgers their most recent.
The Packers believe they have another in that succession with Jordan Love, who spent three seasons as Rodgers' apprentice, before taking the reins. He has a top-five quarterback rating and an array of weapons at his disposal, sometimes seemingly too many to choose from, with none of his receivers really standing out over the course of the campaign, but any capable of hurting opponents.
They have achieved more success through their running game, where Josh Jacobs is an elite rusher.
Green Bay actually are a well-balanced outfit between offence and defence, ranking top five in yards conceded to opponents and particularly in the ground game. Safety Xavier McKinney ranks second in pass interceptions.
Love is also battling an elbow injury to his throwing arm and remains questionable for this game. If unable to go, he will be replaced by Malik Willis, who won two games as a starter earlier in the season.
Prediction: Too close to call, especially if Hurts and/or Love are sidelined, but Barkley may tip the scales in favour of Philly.
2pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Washington Commanders
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
Head to head: Buccaneers won 37-20
Buccaneers (10-7)
NFC South division champions
Super Bowl champions 2002, 2020
Another team benefitting from a weak division to reach the playoffs, Tampa Bay also took advantage of a very soft run home, winning seven of their last eight games against opponents with a combined 37-65 record.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield continues to be one of the great reclamation successes of the game, after four miserable years at Cleveland Browns. He ranked third in passing yards and completion percentage for the season, but was a little prone to taking chances, with 16 interceptions.
Veteran receiver Mike Evans continues to be one of the elite performers in his position, compiling his 11th 1000-yard campaign, despite missing three games through injury. His 11 touchdowns also ranked top five among receivers.
When all the Buccaneers receivers went down injured mid-season, tightend Cade Otton showed he was capable of carrying the aerial game singlehandedly.
Rookie Bucking Irving superseded Rachaad White as the top running back, surpassing 1000 yards and scoring eight touchdowns.
Defensively, the Bucs ranked midtable in yards and points conceded, but were particularly effective at stopping the run, where they were elite. Cornerback Zyon McCollum ranked third in passes defended.
Receiver Mike Evans celebrates a touchdown for Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Photo: Icon Sportswire/Photosport
Commanders (12-5)
Wild card
Super Bowl champions 1982, 1987, 1991
Previously known as the Redskins and recently rebranded, Washington have made one playoff appearance in the past 10 years, but have returned to relevance behind rookie quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels.
Daniels was the second quarterback taken in the draft, but quickly showed he was the most ready to take control of an NFL team, ranking fourth in quarterback rating for the season and second among quarterbacks in rushing, behind Lamar Jackson, to lead his team on the ground.
Washington lost veteran running back Austin Ekeler midseason to injury, but Brian Robinson was probably the No.1 option anyway. Between Daniels, Robinson and Ekeler, they were among the best rushing teams in the league.
They also have a capable receiver in Terry McLaurin, who ranked second in receiving touchdowns and really only needed someone to throw to him - he found it.
The Commanders ranked third in closing down opposition passing games, but like the Bucs, they scored a lot of points and gave up a lot of points too.
Prediction: This should be a fun game to watch - a real shootout - with the Bucs narrowly taking care of business at home.
Tuesday, 14 January (NZT)
2pm Los Angeles Rams v Minnesota Vikings
State Fam Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Head to head: Rams won 30-20
Rams (10-7)
NFC West division champions
Super Bowl champions 1999, 2021
The second Los Angeles team had already sealed their playoff spot before their season-ending loss to division rivals Seattle Seahawks, as they rested their starters. They began the season 1-4, but slowly returned to health to finish 9-3, including a five-game run before their finale.
After 12 seasons with Detroit Lions, quarterback Matthew Stafford was traded to the Rams for counterpart Jared Goff and the move has paid dividends for both teams, with Stafford winning a Super Bowl in 2021 and Goff at the forefront of a culture change in the 'Motor City'.
He missed star receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to start the season, but their return from injury inspired the win over Minnesota in week eight and helped turn the campaign around. Kupp is a former Super Bowl MVP, but his numbers were well down this season, with Nacua becoming the No.1 passing target, ranking third in average yards.
On the ground, Kyren Williams rushed for 1200 yards and scored 14 touchdowns.
Strangely, the Rams actually conceded more points (386) than they scored (367) throughout the season, which is not a great indictment for either element. Eight of their 10 wins were one-score margins, while their worst defeat was 41-10 against Arizona.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford in action for Los Angeles Rams. Photo: Icon Sportswire/Photosport
Vikings (14-3)
Wild card
No Super Bowl championships
No-one would have expected Minnesota to be where they are now at the start of the season, let alone compiling a 14-3 record behind quarterback Sam Darnold.
The Vikings drafted college championship QB JJ McCarthy from Michigan University with the intention of eventually handing their team over to him, but a torn meniscus in his knee sidelined him for the entire season.
Darnold, who had compiled a 21-35 record across six seasons with New Jersey Jets, Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers, simply stepped into the void and made the Vikings his own, ranking top five in yards per game and touchdowns thrown.
He benefitted from a balanced offence that saw running back Aaron Jones surpass 1300 yards, with receiver Justin Jefferson over 1500 yards, ranking second behind Cincinnati's JaMarr Chase. Their defence ranked top five in points conceded and second against the rush.
They won nine straight, before losing their season finale to Detroit Lions, an encounter that decided who would win their division and earn a bye in the playoffs.
Prediction: Nothing in this contest and even more so, now it has been moved from to neutral ground, due to the LA wildfires. If it's close, you'd rather have the ball in Stafford's hands.
