Local residents attend a FLNKS campaign meeting and pose for a photograph in Noumea on 3 July, 2024. Photo: DELPHINE MAYEUR
The Bougival Accord was meant to heal, but now risks dividing New Caledonia again, with a French journalist saying that locals are armed and ready.
It was meant to be the deal that finally brought peace to a Pacific paradise, with big promises of hope and stability.
The Bougival Accord, signed in the French town of the same name in July, was celebrated as historic by French President Emmanuel Macron and hailed as a way forward after years of bloody conflict and uneasy compromise in New Caledonia.
But now, instead of ushering in a new peaceful chapter, the deal has been thrown into turmoil.
The pro-independence Front de Libération Nationale Kanake et Socialiste, known as FLNKS, rejected the accord days after it was signed by all of New Caledonia's political parties represented at the local Congress, a total of 18 leaders, both pro-France and pro-independence.
The rejection leaves New Caledonia's future looking more uncertain than ever, and comes just a year after violent unrest which left 14 people dead and caused billions of dollars in damage.
"People are fearing more riots," French-born, Nouméa-based journalist Coralie Cochin tells The Detail.
"People are stocking up on supplies ... others say they are armed, they have guns, and that this time they will not hesitate to shoot people, that's really frightening.
"And the ultimate fear, in the minds of New Caledonians, is the outbreak of a civil war like the one the country experienced in the eighties."
So, what exactly is the Bougival Agreement, and why is it proving so divisive?
At its core, it's designed to settle one of the Pacific's most complicated independence struggles.
After three referendums that saw locals vote to remain part of France - in 2018, 56.67 percent voted against independence; in 2020, 53.26 percent; and in 2021, a 96.5 percent majority, due to a boycott of the referendum by pro-independence voters - Paris offered a compromise: greater autonomy, stronger recognition of Kanak identity, and safeguards for the French loyalist population. But it stopped short of the independence sought by many Indigenous Kanaks.
"The aim is to provide a new status for New Caledonia, with more autonomy, for example, it includes the creation of a state of New Caledonia, within France - it's very important to add that - and a New Caledonian nationality, linked to a French nationality," Cochin says.
On paper, it's a balancing act. In reality, it seems many are left dissatisfied, leaving "a lot of problems", with the FLNKS arguing that the deal falls well short of genuine independence.
"A few days after signing this accord, some of the partners - the pro-independence partners - rejected the compromise," Cochin says.
"This message reflects a large part of the population, who feel betrayed by Bougival, and yes, the process could derail if the agreement is finalised without the FLNKS, which is a historic partner."
The accord will need final approval in New Caledonia and will likely face a vote in February.
Paris has warned that without a deal, New Caledonia risks sliding back into instability.
And that's a serious fear for locals, who are still struggling to recover after last year's deadly riots, triggered by proposed constitutional amendments.
"That's in everybody's minds, everybody's thinking about that because it was very violent last year," Cochin says.
"Some people died, 14 people, a lot of houses were burned, a lot of people were injured, and mostly we lost a lot of jobs. So, the economy is in a very bad way.
"We really need to achieve an agreement. But the question is, what kind of agreement?"
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